Guy Faulconbridge

LONDON (Reuters – Russia is talking to Ukraine about a peaceful solution while they kill one another. However, there have been few breakthroughs and the two countries remain at odds over territory.

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia says that the Ukraine “special military operations” are necessary due to the fact that the United States used Ukraine as a threat to Russia. Moscow also had to protect against Ukraine’s persecution of Russian-speaking citizens.

Ukraine claims it opposes an imperial-style land grab, and Putin’s accusations of genocide seem absurd.

What Are the Main Issues?

1) Territory: The most difficult part of the negotiations. The talks have been a failure. Neither party has shown any signs of compromise or indicated an intention to. The idea of trying to resolve the problem is being considered. In other words, a plan to keep it ambiguous for many years.

Russia annexed Crimea to Russia in 2014. Two Russian-backed rebel areas of eastern Ukraine were recognized as independent countries by Russia on February 21st, 2014.

Russian forces have seized control of large swathes of Ukraine’s south flank, north of Crimea and surrounding rebel areas, as well as territory to the east, west, and east of Kyiv since their invasion.

Russia holds at most 170,000km more of territory. This is an area roughly equal to the U.S. state North Dakota or Tunisia.

Ukraine said that Russia has no control over Crimea and it won’t recognize the Russian independence of rebel-backed regions, or vast extra territory taken by Russia.

Kyiv repeatedly called for the withdrawal from Ukrainian territory of Russian troops – which includes Crimea. Officials from Ukraine say that they won’t accept the annexation or recognition of rebel areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, and Russian support.

Any Ukrainian leader would find it difficult to recognize what amounts to Russian sovereignty over as much as a third its territory.

Moscow and Ukraine would have to recognise Russian control in Crimea. This includes the rebel regions, as well as the land area north of Crimea. It gives Moscow a land link with Crimea and the control over water supplies.

Russia is particularly interested in the territory on the south flank of Ukraine, as this was annexed to Russia by Russian Empress Catherine the Great following the fall of the Ottoman Empire.

An alternative is to park the question about Crimea, agreeing to 15 year consultations on the status and annexed Crimea. But, Ukrainian nationalists may see it as a split in name only.

Dmitry Peskov (Kremlin spokesperson) stated that Crimea is part Russia, so no talks will take place about it’s fate.

Even though optimistic statements were made after Tuesday’s talks in Istanbul, some analysts remain skeptical.

Tatiana Stanovaya said that Moscow will not consent to anything with Kyiv except if it is a total capitulation. (And that isn’t what is being discussed).

2) Neutrality. Ukraine accepts neutrality, which it has done in every case since 1990.

Ukraine proposes in writing to become neutral in exchange for security guarantees from France, Germany, Turkey, France, and the United Kingdom.

This would need a referendum. Kyiv stated that Russia must withdraw its troops before security guarantees can be provided.

Russia has agreed to reduce its military presence around Kyiv after talks with Turkey.

Russia’s Medinsky claimed that Ukraine expressed willingness to accept Moscow’s demands. These included the abandonment of NATO ambitions and “non-bloc status”, renunciation of any attempts to acquire nuclear or similar weapons, as well as a commitment to refrain from hosting troops or bases foreign.

He stated that if these obligations were met then any threat to create a NATO-bridgehead on Ukrainian territory would be removed.

According to the Ukrainian proposal, Russia wouldn’t oppose Ukraine (the parts that are still under Kyiv control) from joining the European Union.

But the devil is in the detail, and the chronology. In its 1990 Declaration of State Sovereignty, Ukraine’s Parliament declared its intent to become a permanent neutral state as the Soviet Union collapsed.

Putin stated in February that he would like written assurances from Ukraine to not join NATO’s military bloc. Volodymyr Zeleskiy, Ukrainian President, has stated that Ukraine won’t join NATO any time soon since NATO members wouldn’t recognize Ukraine.

Russia also raised concern about Ukraine’s ability to develop nuclear weapons. The 1995 Budapest Memorandum gave security assurances to Ukraine by the United States of America, Russia, and the United Kingdom in exchange for Kyiv’s adhesion to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

Russian rights. The situation of the Russian language in Ukraine and Russian-speaking Ukrainians is a matter for Moscow. In 2019, Ukraine passed a law that gave special status to Ukrainian languages and required public sector employees to use them.

4) De-Nazification. Putin asserts that Ukraine allows Nazi-like groups to “genocide” Russian-speaking populations.

Moscow has accused the Azov Battalion of Ukraine of being part of a Nazi organization that terrorised Russian civilians as well as committed war crimes.

It was formed in 2014 by volunteers who had fought against Russian-backed rebel areas. The founders of the Azov Battalion have extreme right-wing anti-Semitic and white supremacist views. A request to comment was not received by the Azov Battalion.

The role played by Azov, a Ukrainian president’s aide, in the defense of Mariupol (where it is located) has been repeatedly repeated.

These claims of genocide against Russian speakers are dismissed by Ukraine. Zelenskiy claims that Russia has been acting in a similar fashion to the Nazis, causing havoc on Ukrainian cities.

Who is talking and how?

Four days after Putin sent troops to Ukraine, talks began to try to end the conflict. Some of the talks were held at the Belarusian border, in Turkey or Belarus. Others took place over video conference.

Medinsky is the Russian presidential advisor. He is a Russian born in Soviet Ukraine and casts modern Ukraine in a historical phantom. Medinsky is a Russian-born Russian, who is also a former Soviet diplomat. Medinsky believes that “the so-called Ukrainian history is not only inextricably connected to the thousand years history of Rus/Russia/U.S.S.R.” It is Russian history.

On Wednesday, he stated that Ukraine has expressed willingness to accept Russian demands. Ukraine has two key negotiating teams: Oleksii Reznikov (Defense Minister) and Mykhailo Podolyak (Presidential Advisor).

PUTIN & ZELENSKIY

Meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy could indicate real peace, as Russia repeatedly stated that there would be no meeting until all details have been agreed upon.