Saikat Chatterjee shows you a glimpse at tomorrow’s markets.

This is the quarter most investors want to forget, no matter if you are an expert stock picker or macro-guru.

Most of the consensus trades that were entered into 2022, including those involving long-value stocks, yield curve steepeners, and buying euros, have failed. The worst volatility for world stocks in many years has been witnessed in the last three months. This year’s commodities rally is the strongest since World War I. It also saw the highest rise in global interest rate in decades.

Stock markets slowly find their footing as they settle down on the first quarter. Stocks in the United States are now within 5% of their January 4th record.

The quarter will see a global stock index end down by 4%. This is its lowest performance since the pandemic collapse two years ago, but it’s still well ahead of the 14% annual drop just two weeks ago.

Both currencies and bond have suffered worse. U.S. Treasuries index A Bank of America is on track to post its worst quarterly performance for 25 years. The Japanese yen, which has fallen a staggering 6% in three months after Brexit’s vote, has also suffered a severe decline. Volatility is rising across all asset classes.

Some longer-term trends can be seen if we look up at quarterly performance from the 30,000 foot view. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has meant that global supply chains are likely to remain under severe pressure. Global policymakers will have a difficult time controlling rampant inflation and sustaining growth.

Markets are currently optimistic. U.S. and European stock futures are higher and oil prices lower on signs the Biden administration is considering a massive release of from U.S. reserves to combat inflation.

A slide in Chinese stocks due to the loss of output data reflects damage from renewed lockdowns on technology and factory centers that weighed down Asian markets. Treasuries added to price gains, while a portion of the curve has pulled out of a brief inversion that raised concerns about an impending recession.

Graphic: Global markets year-to-date – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dwpkrqkejvm/Pasted%20image%201648628891823.png

These are the key developments expected to give more direction for markets Thursday

U.S. data dump : Personal income, expenditure, Initial jobless claims.

– Sweden’s H&M reports smaller-than-expected profit

China’s service and factory sectors were in negative territory during March

French Inflation rises above expectations in March to an all-time high of 5.1%

The UK’s economy grew in the last 2021 thanks to COVID spending

Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov in China

– ECB bank supervisor Andrea Enria, ECB board member Philip R. Lane, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos

John Williams (New York President)

– Ministerial Meeting OPEC and non OPEC

US Weekly Jobless Claims/PCE Price Index

– Emerging market: Colombia, Czech central bank