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Russia’s Putin is so powerful everyone is scared to tell him the truth

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Russian President Vladimir Putin marked the Defender Day of the Fatheland in 2015 in Moscow, Russia with military officers surrounding him.

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President Vladimir PutinRussia’s vast power may now prove to be a weakness, as those close to him seem to not want to reveal the truth to him or challenge his reasoning or strategy in relation to Russia’s invasion.

CNBC’s Anton Barbashin said Thursday that Putin systematically eliminated anyone who would have challenged his authority, and left only those most faithful and fearful,” Anton Barbashin (a Russian political analyst, and editor of Riddle), told CNBC.

He said that any dictator or autocrat, no matter how long they are in power, will eventually surround himself with loyal people and then, if necessary, competent individuals.

“We have a fix for it — it is called the separation of power and office term limits, but Putin believed he could work around it. There is no way. We have the Ukraine and Russia paying.

Newly declassified U.S. intelligence released on Wednesday suggested that Putin has not been given the whole truth about Russia’s botched invasion of Ukraine and that the president feels misled by his military leaders who did not tell him key details about the war — which has not gone to plan with Russian forces bogged down in fighting in the north, east and south — because they feared angering him.

Barbashin said that while he was cautious about accepting the veracity of the U.S. intelligence update wholesale, it was likely that the information Putin receives — mostly coming from his security agencies or his own presidential administration — is biased and inaccurate.

Barbashin stated that such information can and probably is always being manipulated by those around him.

He stated, “Noone wants to give bad news. Every agency that works with him wants to prove its worth before him.” We don’t have any idea what is going on there. However, it is clear that Putin doesn’t like the way war is progressing.

CNBC reached out to the Kremlin in an effort to get a reply on the intelligence report. We are still waiting for that response.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the concert at Luzhniki stadium, Moscow, on March 18th 2022 to commemorate the eight-year anniversary of Russia’s annexation Crimea from Ukraine.

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Analysts believe it is not only military commanders that are afraid of Putin. It’s an all-encompassing problem in Russian government circles from Putin’s top circle down to civil servants with high qualifications who fear to challenge the regime and the war in Ukraine.

“They’re very much afraid — very much afraid,” Vladimir Milov, a Russian opposition politician and former deputy energy minister, who now lives in Lithuania, told CNBC Wednesday.

“Believe me, I have a lot of sources in the Russian government and nobody is actually supporting the war — maybe save for a few people in Putin’s inner circle — nobody is supporting what Putin is doing.”

He added, “I would suggest that in government circles there is very little support for Putin’s activities.”

Milov replied that most civil servants feel afraid and trapped when they are asked about why so many don’t quit.

They have no other place to go. Because they aided Putin in launching the war, most of the West will reject them. They feel stuck and can’t do anything but wait.

Milov said that Russian officials have been “persecuted” in a greater extent than opposition figures recently.

“None of the days that passed when some deputy minister, some deputy governor” [has not been]Raids on or arrests made. All of them are under 24-hour FSB surveillance. If they do make a mistake it is immediately reported to the FSB and could lead to their imprisonment.

As the war in Ukraine enters its sixth week on ThursdayThere is no sign that the invasion will be swiftly ended and there are many indications it is turning into a war for attrition with both sides trying to take the other down.

Putin was widely believed to have anticipated Russian forces to occupy Ukraine with the goal of overthrowing the Ukrainian government and installing an anti-Russian regime, as Moscow seeks expansion of its influence in former Soviet nations.

According to analysts, Russian forces fighting in Ukraine have sustained far more casualties that Moscow had expected. After a Russian car was destroyed on March 3, 2022 by Ukrainian troops, this photo shows that Ukrainian soldiers were salvaging the equipment of an injured soldier.

Marcus Yam | Los Angeles Times | Getty Images

Defense analysts have said that Russian troops were ill-prepared for the invasion but this may not have been communicated to Putin by military commanders eager to please, and reluctant to look incompetent — or indeed for the forces under their command to look incapable.

“We’ve seen Russian soldiers — short of weapons and morale — refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft,” Jeremy Fleming, the head of the U.K.’s cyber-intelligence agency GCHQ, said in a speech ThursdayPutin, who stated that he “overestimated” the capabilities of his army to achieve a swift victory.

He added that, “And even though Putin’s advisors fear to tell him truth, we must make it crystal clear to the regime what’s happening and the extent these misjudgments have been,”

To speak truth to power, you cannot

Experts question whether there is a way to make the most of this opportunity. invasion of Ukraine — which has had unintended consequences for Russia — could backfire spectacularly on Putin, leaving him vulnerable to an uprising at home, as living standards fall, or a coup led from within by members of his political and business elite.

Analysts observe that Putin seems to not be under any pressure to stop the war. There is little evidence to suggest that members of Russia’s business and political elite are mobilizing against Ukraine’s war.

CNBC’s Christopher Miller said Wednesday that Russia suffered more casualties than expected. He also stated that sanctions were far more important than Russia had anticipated. However, the Kremlin was protected from domestic pressures at the end of each day.

However, it is unclear if his misjudgments made him more susceptible to an overthrow or coup.

Putin is generally believed to have gained his power by protecting and enriching business elites, persecuting Russia’s political opposition, including Alexei Navalny. He was jailed for what many consider to be false charges.

Putin is also said to be surrounded by “siloviki,” or “strongmen,” who were former colleagues of his in the KGB (the predecessor of the FSB, Russia’s security service) or who come from the military and security services such as the GRU (the foreign military intelligence agency) or the FSO — the Federal Protective Service, a federal government agency believed to have around 50,000 personnel who are responsible for protecting high-ranking state officials, of course including the president.

Putin, therefore, is seen to have a protective cocoon around him that makes him almost invulnerable.

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