By Seher Dareen

(Reuters) – Oil prices are expected to rise, with oil wells staying above $100 in the coming year. This is despite a dry market trying to get rid of Russian oil. A Reuters poll was conducted on Thursday.

    A survey of 40 economists and analysts forecast would average $103.07 a barrel this year, a jump from the previous poll’s $91.15 consensus and the highest 2022 estimate yet in Reuters surveys.

Also, the 2022 consensus was raised sharply from $87.68 to $98.49 per barrel.

    With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine entering a second month, global supply shortages approached 5 million to 6 million barrels per day (bpd) while demand has risen to record highs.

    Russian exports make up about 7% of global supply. Brent rose to $139.13 a barrel due to concerns about the Ukraine war.

Edward Moya (OANDA senior market analyst), said that geopolitics would be the focus of attention for the first half-year. He also suggested that wars could result in “intensifying periods that might eventually lead to an embargo against Russian oil and gasoline”.

    But the focus could then shift to the level of demand destruction from persistent high prices, he said.

    Storm damage to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline has exacerbated supply concerns, analysts said.

    Despite supply concerns, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, a group known as OPEC+, are still expected to stick to a modest increase in output in May.

Suvro Sarkar from DBS Bank, a leading energy analyst, stated that OPEC+ is currently in a fragile position because Russia is a non-OPEC signatory to this production cut agreement.

    A deal between Iran and world powers on Tehran’s nuclear work could herald the return of Iranian barrels and relieve some supply worries, although an agreement has faced delays.

    Poll respondents were divided on when the market would see a balance between supply and demand, with estimates ranging from the second half of 2022 to 2024.

   “We will see no rebalancing before the war in Ukraine is over,” said Frank Schallenberger, head of commodity research at LBBW.