Geoffrey Smith 

Investing.com — As inactive workers are reintroduced to the labour force due to rising living costs, the U.S. expects that it will have created nearly half of a million new jobs in March. Eurozone inflation hits an all-time high and manufacturing slows sharply as the  effects of war in Ukraine appear in the economic data for the first time. The second quarter will see stocks rebound after ending it on a poor note. China’s Covid-19 lockdowns, and other stock market suspensions raise concerns about China’s second-largest country. The price of oil is back at $100 per barrel. These are the facts you need to know for Thursday, April 1st.

1. Another solid increase in payrolls; keep an eye on the participation rate

It’s payrolls day, and the monthly employment report at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT) will cap a week of data from a labor market that remains as tight as a drum. The monthly JOLTS survey showed vacancies still close to record highs and the ‘quit rate’ ticking up in March.

The nonfarm payrolls will have increased by 490,000. This can be considered a sign of normalization following even larger leaps in the previous year when Covid-related restrictions were removed.

As the Federal Reserve tries to reduce overshooting inflation, it is likely that the unemployment rate will drop to 3.7% (from 3.8%). The average hourly earnings growth, however, is forecast to be 0.4%.

The report’s most significant element will, however, be the labor force participation. This is despite the suspicion that people will return to work if they have higher living expenses.

2. Inflation in the Eurozone hits a record high, U.K. energy costs soar but Russian gas continues to flow

Europe is facing higher living costs again on Friday. Eurozone inflation reached 7.5% in March. This was the highest level since the creation of the euro. There’s worse to come, given the ongoing increase in energy prices, so a 13-month low in Markit’s manufacturing PMI came as no surprise.

The U.K. has a household energy price cap increase that will cause a sharp and immediate rise in bill prices for some consumers. This is especially true for the poorer customers.

The situation is even worse in North Africa, where inflation is being driven by rocketing food prices, according to a new report by the UN’s World Food Program.

Both developments are traceable at least in part to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has disrupted world trade in grains and oil and gas. However, Russian gas is still flowing to Europe despite new rules that require payment in rubles. These new arrangements have cosmetic effects. Spot prices have soared and transmission data shows Russia has shipped MORE gas to Europe in recent months than any other time. This is because buyers rely more heavily on long-term Gazprom contracts (MCX).

3. Stocks to Open Higher; Ford and GM Inactive Plants Due to Parts Shortage

The U.S. stock exchanges are expected to open higher following a disappointing quarter. Each of the main indexes fell around 1.5% in the first quarter.

At 06:15 GMT (1015 GMT), they were up 210 point, or 0.6%. Meanwhile, were also up 1.6% and 0.8%.

The Covid-19 lockdowns in China have caused renewed anxiety about supply chain disruptions. They are now affecting more factories and logistics centers.

Late Thursday, Ford and GM each announced that some plants will be closed temporarily due to part shortages.

4. China factories contraction; mass suspensino of real estate developer stocks

China’s Covid-19 numbers remain a source of some controversy, but the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which covers the country’s smaller and independent businesses, followed the state-dominated official PMI in signalling a contraction in activity in March. This was down from 50.4 in February’s 48.1 and is now at 48.1.

There was also fresh evidence of the unsolved problems in the country’s real estate sector, as the Hong Kong Stock Exchange suspended over 30 companies for failing to meet a deadline for filing full-year reports. The companies suspended included developers Shimao – previously seen as one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector – and Kaisa, one of the biggest Chinese users of the foreign bond markets.

Chinese diplomats meet with the EU in Brussels later, but are not expected to signal any weakening of the country’s support for Russia in its war against Ukraine.

5. As OPEC+ hits its buffers, oil prices rise to $100

Crude oil prices regained their mojo after taking a big hit earlier in the week from President Joe Biden’s plan to unlock the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

At 6:25 AM ET futures had fallen 0.1% to $100.19/barrel after hitting a peak of $100.84 earlier. Meanwhile,, which is the global benchmark for oil prices, was up 0.1% to $104.85/barrel at that time.

This comes after OPEC and Russia refused to boost output beyond the scheduled 432,000 barrels per hour starting in May. Anyone looking for extra barrels will have to look to Baker Hughes’ U.S. rig count later in the day, where signs of drilling activity have picked up sharply in recent months as the prospects for a lengthy period of above-trend prices have brightened.