By Michael Martina and Michelle Nichols

WASHINGTON/UNITED NATIONS – China’s refusal to vote against Russia’s invasion in Ukraine is a win, said the U.S. envoy at the United Nations. This highlights how Washington’s balancing act with Russia may lead to Washington’s best possible outcome.

Beijing refused to label Russia’s actions against Ukraine as an invasion. It has also repeatedly criticised what it calls illegal Western sanctions that punish Moscow.

However, the U.S.’s pressure on China (including the threat of secondary sanctions if it provides material support to Russia’s war), appears to be keeping Beijing at the front lines. 

China abstained last month from two U.N. General Assembly non-binding votes that criticised Russia’s ongoing war and humanitarian costs.

China must abstain to win. While we would like them to vote Yes, an Abstention is better that them voting No,” Linda Thomas Greenfield, U.N. ambassador told Reuters.

“I don’t know if they thought Russia would get this far. “They continue to support Russia publically, but I get a feeling of discomfort,” she stated.

China’s U.N. Responding to Thomas-Greenfield, Ambassador Zhang Jun said that “the whole world isn’t comfortable.” Are you sure that this crisis should not be a problem for anyone?

China and Russia announced a strategic partnership “no limits” several weeks prior to February 24, invasion. Since then, they have been increasing their energy and security ties to fight the United States.

In a defiant tilt towards Moscow, China’s leader Xi Jinping discussed Ukraine in calls with many leaders from major countries but did not offer any diplomatic support to President Volodymyr Zilenskiy.

While Beijing has given some humanitarian aid to Ukraine – about $2.37 million worth of items such as blankets and baby formula – those contributions are outmatched by much smaller donors.

While analysts say that they don’t see any significant evidence China violates strict Western sanctions, however, there are signs China may be trying to protect its interests, especially on the economic side.

Sources told Reuters that China’s oil refiners have resisted new contracts with Russia despite high discounts. This is in response to Beijing’s warnings about western sanctions on Russia.

China’s largest oil refiner and state-owned Sinopec (NYSE 🙂 has also stopped talks to invest in petrochemicals or launch a Russian gas marketing company.

China should have a good understanding of what sanctions on Russia will mean if it gives material support to Moscow. This was the warning from U.S. Deputy Secretary Of State Wendy Sherman on Wednesday.

China appears unlikely to back away from its tacit diplomatic support for Russia – even in light of graphic images showing widespread civilian killings in the Ukrainian town of Bucha, north of the capital Kyiv.

After bodies were discovered bound and shot in their heads, the West and Ukraine denounced these killings and called them war crimes. Officials in Ukraine claim that the mass grave dug by a local church contained 150 to 300 corpses. Moscow refutes this accusation.

Zhang stated that China didn’t want to be drawn into the crisis.

Zhang stated that the focus should be on the parties involved to find a quick solution, rather than trying to see some indirect party and drag them into this crisis.

He stated, “Let’s be clear: China does not choose sides with other countries. We are only there to defend justice and fairness.”

‘PLAY BOTH SIDES.

According to the EU, U.S. officials seem to believe that China will support Russia’s efforts to help it. China and the United States together account for 25% of China’s total global trade. Russia’s share is 2.4%.

Mira Rapp-Hooper was the director of the Indo-Pacific program at the White House National Security Council. She stated that there will likely be some Chinese support for Russian economic growth. 

U.S. President Joe Biden has leaned heavily on allies to help make the case – as he did in a call with Xi last month – that there would be consequences for supporting Russia.

China’s foreign ministry stated that the country was not intentionally bypassing sanctions, following a virtual summit of EU and Chinese leaders. 

The US has denied ever being requested for or providing military support to Russia.

Scott Kennedy is a China specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He stated that there were few indications that Chinese banks supported sanctioned Russian financial institutions and that certain Chinese companies were selling less to Russia. This included cell phones and car parts.

Experts believe that the United States is unable to track and monitor small-scale Chinese sanctions violations. This could lead to shipments being driven across land borders, where U.S. surveillance does not exist. According to them, the ultimate goal should be to prevent large-scale sanctioned Russian trade from Chinese companies.

“The realists are going to win this one and understand that the Chinese are going to play both sides toward the middle and they’ll take what few victories they can get,” said Donald Pearce, a former export control attaché at the U.S. embassy in Moscow who works with Torres Trade Advisory.

Pearce stated, “If you have at least a tacit acknowledgment that China accepts the possibility that the U.S. might start imposing secondary sanction,”