Analysis-Politics, not substance, seen guiding U.S. and Iran on terror listing -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: In this illustration, the flags of Iran (and U.S.) are shown printed on paper. This was taken January 27, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationParisa Hafezi and Arshad Mohammad
(Reuters). – Tehran’s demands to have its Revolutionary Guards removed from a U.S. terrorism lists are one of the obstacles that prevents the 2015 Iran nuclear accord being revived. According to analysts, this is more a political issue than if it were substance.
Although the two sides appeared to be close to reviving pact a few months ago, negotiations have stalled because of last minute Russian demands, Nowruz holiday and unresolved issues such as whether Washington may remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the U.S. Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO).
Since 2015, Iran and the United States have engaged in sporadic indirect talks. They are trying to revive the 2015 accord that Iran signed which limited Iran’s nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief.
One source said that the United States considered dropping this designation as a condition for Iran’s commitment to curb IRGC activity.
The White House knows of the “political sensitivity and cost” associated with removing elite forces from the list. Dennis Ross is a veteran U.S. Middle East negotiator. He also noted that there are some Democrats who oppose its removal.
He added that “there is hesitancy by the political side on the White House.”
Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reports that a top administration official stated U.S. President Joe Biden had no intention to change the terrorist designation.
A senior Biden Administration official answered questions about this report by saying, “We’re not going to negotiate publically.” “There are still gaps.”
According to the official, “The burden here lies on Iran at this point and especially on this issue.”
LITTLE ECONOMIC IMPACT
The 2019 FTO designation by the Trump administration of the IRGC was historic. It was Washington’s first blacklisting of a part of another nation’s military. Some saw it as a poison pill that would make it more difficult to revive the nuclear agreement, which Donald Trump had abandoned in 2018.
Critics as well those opposed to dropping the IRGC are equally open to it. They claim doing so would have no economic effect as other U.S. sanctions will force foreign actors away from the group.
“It’s the administration-wide assessment that it would not have a significant – if any – impact,” said a senior U.S. official on condition of anonymity.
Because the IRGC was still sanctioned on a separate U.S. Blacklist List created after Sept. 11 attacks, this is partly why.
Washington charges the IRGC with a worldwide terrorist campaign. It is a political powerhouse in Iran. They control a vast business empire, as well as intelligence and elite armed forces.
Sources in Iran cited many reasons for wanting this designation removed. They also mentioned domestic politics as well as the desire of Ebrahim Raisi, the new Iranian president to demonstrate that they can negotiate a better deal with Hassan Rouhani.
A senior Iranian diplomat said that “mostly it is a matterof dignity for Iran’s establishment and Iran’s negotiators.” He spoke under anonymity.
The new team insists on FTO issues from the start and considers that a significant achievement, if the sanctions are lifted. They are primarily for domestic use as they have criticized Rouhani’s 2015 agreement and can’t just revive it,” said a former Iranian senior official briefed about the negotiations.
An Iranian diplomat stated that Iran has rejected the suggestion of removing this designation from the IRGC in its entirety but keeping the Quds Force’s status.
SOFT ON TERRORISM
The main issue at Washington, despite the fact that U.S. officials don’t want to admit it is politically motivated. Republicans claim that dropping FTO would indicate that the Biden administration has become soft on terrorists, which is a claim U.S. officials refute.
Rep. Michael McCaul (the top Republican in the House Foreign Affairs Committee) last week called the IRGC “a murder machine” that threatened Americans. He also stressed the political costs to the White House.
He stated, “That’s going be split in half the Democratic Party on this,”
Although some Democrats expressed reservations, there are few chances that Congress will block the revival of the nuclear agreement.
New Jersey Democrat Josh Gottheimer stated last week that Americans cannot risk their lives by removing the… FTO classification.
Even those who criticize the removal admit that it would not have any practical effect.
Matthew Levitt from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy thought tank claimed that identifying the IRGC an FTO adds only two authorities. This allows the U.S. government, in addition to granting entry bans to all those associated with them, to impose criminal sanctions on anyone who knowingly provides it “material assistance.”
Levitt recently stated that Iran could use removal to claim that it is not engaged in terrorist acts, and that the U.S. would lose credibility if the label was dropped.
“The IRGC should be kept on the FTO’s list only if there is proof that it has ceased terrorist activity,” he said.
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