Analysts said that Russia must reconsider its goal of a 20 percent share in the global LNG market, after EU sanctions imposed restrictions on equipment.

Russia was planning to have a 20% market share by 2035. Russia plans to increase its annual LNG production to 120-140 millions tonnes, up from 30 million tonnes.

However, Russia is not allowed to be supplied with goods or technologies necessary for gas liquefaction under the fifth EU-imposed sanctions.

The Aton brokerage stated in a note that the ban “jeopardizes the energy strategy up to 2035,” according to which Russia was expected to have 20% of the global LNG market.

Australia and Qatar are Russia’s major competitors on the global LNG markets.

Alexei Kokin of the Otkritie brokerage claimed that sanctions will slow down new projects that use EU-sourced machinery.

He said that if I am not mistaken those large-scale Russian LNG projects are the same as European ones, and added that the Russian technology would be replaced over many years.

Due to Russia’s “special military operation” against Ukraine, the EU aims to reduce its dependence on Russian gas consumption by 2/3 of this year. It also wants to eliminate all Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027.

Russia is responsible for 40% of Europe’s total gas consumption.

After the departure of ExxonMobil (NYSE) and Shell (LON), Russia’s LNG industry was already in trouble. These companies played important roles in future or current projects.

Aton analysts stated that new EU restrictions have put into doubt the feasibility of new projects such as Novatek’s Arctic LNG-2 or Gazprom (MCX)’s Baltic LNG.

Arctic LNG-2 has 98% of its first line.

Alexei Grivach from the Moscow-based National Energy Security Fund claimed that Russian LNG production relies on imports “critically”.

“Obviously, these sanctions will lead us to revise all our projects as well as the strategy of Russia in LNG production overall,” he stated.

Russia said that, before the introduction of new sanctions, it was going to continue implementing its energy projects. This included Arctic LNG 2.

Gazprom, Novatek, and the Energy Ministry did not respond to comments requests.