James Oliphant

CORTLAND, Ohio (Reuters] – Josh Mandel is a top contender in the U.S. Senate Republican primary fight in Ohio. This week, he expressed his confidence in winning the nomination as he campaigned in Ohio with General Michael Flynn. Flynn was an ally to Donald Trump.

Flynn however was an consolation prize to Mandel. In a contest that has been defined by which candidate could prove the most fealty to the former president, Mandel has lost the golden ticket: Trump’s endorsement.

Trump’s announcement last week that he was endorsing Mandel’s rival, “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance, has upended the race and turned the May 3 primary into one of the biggest tests of Trump’s power to elevate candidates of his choosing as he considers another run for the White House.

A win by Vance, who like Trump was a newcomer to politics and has been trailing in the polls, would demonstrate that the former president’s hold on his party’s base remains ironclad, likely discouraging Republicans who are considering challenging him should he run again.

But some Ohio Republicans warn that a Vance victory would endanger the party’s hold on the seat of retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman, making it more difficult for the party to win control of the U.S. Senate and block Democratic President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.

Vance was criticized by Trump’s past and more than 40 Republican officials wrote earlier to Trump urging him not to endorse Vance.

In 2016, before he entered politics, Vance called Trump an “opioid” who was “leading the white working-class to a very dark place.”

At a campaign event in suburban Cleveland this week with Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., Vance addressed that past criticism, saying, “I did not think Trump was going to be a great president. Boy, was I ever proven wrong.”

After the event, Vance told Reuters that Trump’s endorsement has had “a profound effect on the race.” Vance and Trump Jr. held a fundraiser before the event that raised $50,000, an aide said.

Vance will attend a Trump rally in Ohio this Saturday.

A poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group shortly before Trump’s endorsement found Mandel in the lead with 28% of the vote and Vance behind at 22%. More than half said that Trump’s endorsement would boost their likelihood of supporting him.

Trump was victorious in Ohio, but there is still one Democratic Senator: Sherrod Brown.

Trump made other risky bets recently, supporting Mehmet Oz, a TV personality, in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. This angered some Republicans. His strategy sometimes seems at odds with that of Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell, who prefers to back establishment-oriented candidates he feels have the best chance of appealing to a wider swath of voters.

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Vance’s “Hillbilly Elegy” was a best-seller that documented the descent of factory towns in states like Ohio into poverty and drug abuse. Trumpian populist, Vance presents himself as an angry populist that focuses on immigration and trade.

Peter Thiel is his backer. The billionaire co-founder of PayPal, NASDAQ: has invested over $13 million in a political action committee to support Vance.

Deborah Damas (67), a Republican from Parma in Ohio said that Trump’s endorsement had inspired her to vote for Vance after the Cleveland event. “100 percent,” Damas said.

Mandel, an ex-U.S. Marine and former state treasurer, had been considered the front-runner for much of the race and had long sought Trump’s blessing. He has enthusiastically backed Trump’s bogus claim that the 2020 election was stolen by Biden.

He has made a series of provocative statements on social media, including comparing the federal government to Nazi Germany’s Gestapo secret police and calling Afghan refugees “alligators” who would assault American women. He nearly got in a fight with Mike Gibbons, his rival candidate for the presidential election.

“In politics, boldness is rewarded. Clumsiness is penalized,” Mark Weaver, an Ohio-based Republican strategist, said of Mandel.

“When you find a candidate who is bold and clumsy, being bold gets you three steps forward, clumsy takes you four steps back.”

When Mandel campaigned at a diner in Cortland this week, Vance’s name was roundly booed when mentioned.

Mandel did not speculate about Trump’s decision to choose Mandel. “I’m more confident than ever I’m going to win,” he told reporters.