Fed to go even bigger on rate hikes, traders bet -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – An eagle flies above the facade of Washington’s U.S. Federal Reserve Building, July 31, 2013. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photograph(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will follow a one-half-percentage-point interest rate increase in May, with two more rate increases at subsequent meetings. This is one day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that he was open to front-end loading the U.S. central banks’s withdrawal from ultra-easy monetary policies.
The Fed’s policy-rate-linked futures contract now displays overwhelming expectations of a rise in short term borrowing costs to the range of 0.75% to 1% at its May 3-4 meeting and to the range of 2% to 2.255% by the Fed’s July 26-27 meeting.
Nomura Research economists are calling on the Fed to increase the Fed’s July and June meeting rates by 0.75 percent.
They wrote that “Stronger (market) pricing would likely help the FOMC’s path and that participants could likely forge consensus on such an action fast,” in a Friday note.
Powell pointed out Thursday that while the Fed increased its policy interest rate by quarter percent last month, it was only its first move after nearly zero policy rates for two years. Powell also noted that “many” Fed policymakers thought larger hikes were necessary.
Powell stated that 50 basis points would be available for May’s meeting. He added that he also believes in front-end loading, which is the removal of accommodation.
From the range of 0%-0.25% for the past two years, the Fed has increased the target range for Fed funds rates to 0.25-0.5% in March.
Even dovish Fed policymakers, such as Mary Daly of San Francisco Fed and Charles Evans of Chicago Fed, are now embracing the notion of a half point increase in interest rates in May. They also want to get them to zero by year’s end.
The consensus of the U.S. central banking is that the level would be somewhere between 2.25%-2.5% long term.
However, inflation being as high as they are — consumer prices rose 8.5% in August — many observers believe that interest rates need to go up even more to make it affordable enough for people to get involved with economic activity.
Daly stated earlier in the week to reporters that she still believes that neutral is between 2.25% and 2.5%, however noted that they won’t know until rates are closer to this level. They can then observe what happens in an economy.
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