Stock Groups

Bank of Japan vows limitless defence of yield target -Breaking

[ad_1]

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO A man in a mask walks by the Bank of Japan headquarters during the COVID-19 outbreak that erupted in Tokyo, Japan on May 22, 2020. REUTERS/Kim Kyung Hoon

SINGAPORE, (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan maintained Thursday its huge stimulus program and a promise to maintain low interest rates. This reaffirmed its determination to help a weak economy.

To protect its implicit 0.2% yield target of zero, the central banking also stated it will buy an unlimited number of 10-year bonds.

It is striking contrast to tightening everywhere else. This decision drove Japan’s government bonds up and put the yen at a 2-decade low against the U.S. dollars.

Below are analysts’ opinions on the market response and what it means for you.

BART WAKABAYASHI COBRANCH MANAGER, STATESTREET, TOKYO

The commitment to conduct fixed rate operations daily is the key announcement. It seems they want to emphasize that we are ready to respond at any moment.

They have quadrupled their dedication to this.

The BOJ does not promote a weak currency, but they are in fact supporting one. I think that most people would agree 130 was in play. But now, it is a preordained conclusion. It is likely that London will arrive and make (dollar/yen), higher.

RAY ATTRILL, HEAD FX STRATEGY NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK SYDNEY

Effectively, the Bank of Japan doubled down its yield-curve target with its offer to purchase bonds at 0.2% per day. No longer is there a “will-they/won’t-they” debate.

TOM LEARMOUTH, JAPAN ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS

“(The decision is) unlikely to resolve the BoJ’s dilemma.”

“As it comes under further pressure from continued rises in global bond yields, we think the bank will eventually give itself some breathing space by widening the band from ±0.25% to ±0.50%. That could happen at the next meeting on 17th June.

“That being said, complete abandonment of yield control is unlikely.”

TAKESHI MINAMI, CHIEF ECONOMIST NORINCHUKIN RESEARCH INSTRITUTE, TOKYO

The BOJ will deliver the type of policy that it is doing, which could lead to a rise in yen appreciation. While the Federal Reserve of the United States could raise interest rates 50 basis points next Wednesday, the BOJ will maintain the 0.25% yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds.

There is no indication that the prices will rise by more than 2%. Everyone is asking if it really is worth it to continue as is. “Markets may attack the BOJ’s endless bond buying.”

MASAHIRO ICHIKAWA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, SUMITOMO MITSUI DS ASSET MANAGEMENT, TOKYO

“The BOJ kept its existing easy policies and the market saw that as a sign that it would not be concerned about a weakening yen. The Fed will increase the gap in interest rates between Japan and the U.S. with its rate hike scheduled for next week.

“BOJ Governor Kuroda is likely to repeat his prior views” during a press conference later that day. “With no surprise expected,” this makes a yen-shortening position less plausible.

HIROAKI MUTO – ECONOMIST, SUMITOMO LIFE INSURANCECO, TOKYO

“The BOJ proved that it is willing to fight the rise in JGB yields” by maintaining the existing policy with no concession.

“The BOJ is not going to give in and continue fighting for its yield curve control.”

SHOTARO KUGO, ECONOMIST, DAIWA INSTITUTE OF RESEARCH, TOKYO

“The BOJ’s announcement that it will buy bonds at 0.2% (every day), has a powerful announcement effect, regardless of whether or not the BOJ actually buys.

It implied that the BOJ wouldn’t allow speculation about policy revisions to be made at future meetings.

KIYONG SEONG. LEAD ASIA MACRO STRATEGIST. SOCIETE GENERALE. HONG KONG

It confirms the BOJ’s dovishness, and that has been detrimental for the Japanese yen. The yen is now falling fast and dragging with most other north Asian currencies.

“Even though markets had anticipated that the BOJ would continue to be accommodating, the fact that they were wrong again led to an exaggerated market reaction.”

SEAN CALLOW SENIOR CURRENCY STATEGIST WESTPAC, SYDNEY

After weeks of confused comments from officials about the yen, the BOJ finally delivered a clear message: the global inflation surge was ex-Japan so no rates will be maintained.

While the dollar/yen ratio may seem to be quite a large number, it is not a straight line. The attention will likely turn to 135, which was the high in 2002. Although the yen cannot be ignored, it’s a secondary effect of the BOJ.

HIDEO KUMANO, CHIEF ECONOMIST, DAI-ICHI LIFE RESEARCH INSTITUTE, TOKYO

“The dollar-yen responded very strongly. The pair may be tested by investors to see if it breaks above 130 yen.

“I am puzzled why the BOJ decided to change its stance today on fixed rate operations. This likely caused the yen’s sell-off. Investors should be paying attention to what Kuroda might have to say about this and his past stance that weakening the yen is good news for the economy.

“What makes me worry is the prospect of the Fed’s move towards quantitative tightening at its meeting next week during Japan’s Golden Week holidays. This could lead to sharper yen drops in a weak trade.

[ad_2]