By David Stanway

SHANGHAI (Reuters). China’s most severe COVID-19 infection, in Shanghai has raised new questions about its official data, especially a deathrate that, despite a significant increase, still remains low than other parts of the world.

HOW LOW IS THE DEATH RATE?

Shanghai was the only city to report no COVID-19-related deaths in Shanghai for over a month since the beginning of this current epidemic, which began in March. Over the last 11 days, however, deaths began to increase. From 500,000 confirmed cases, 285 COVID-related deaths have been reported in the city of 25million people.

Hong Kong was home to more than 9,900 deaths and 1.2 million infections in its 7.4million residents.

International observers are surprised by Shanghai’s unusually high proportion of cases that have not been diagnosed.

IS CHINA UNDER-REPORTED?

In 2019-20, COVID was first discovered in Wuhan, China. It caused approximately 4,600 deaths in its initial wave. This happened mainly in Wuhan, but also in nearby Hubei province. The death toll in China was quickly outnumbered by those across the globe.

Numerous studies cast doubts on China’s figures, including one published in June 2020 that said they were “outside of accepted and recognised medical norms”. There could be 36,000 deaths in Wuhan alone. This is 10 times more than the official number.

Experts believe Shanghai’s low death rate is indicative of this pattern of under-reporting.

Mai He from Washington University, St. Louis was one of the co-authors of the 2020 study.

You don’t even know that they may have died in your apartment. He said that Wuhan was also affected by this incident, and added that Shanghai deaths could be at least twice the normal level.

He stated that transparency is what is most important. Without transparency everything becomes a guess. He said, “It is a reasonable guess. It is an educated guess. However, it remains a guess.”

Shanghai’s government didn’t immediately reply to our request for comment. Chinese media and government have consistently denied claims of COVID death under-reporting.

ARE THE ELDERLY FEELING BETTER PROTECTED

The majority of people who are infected in Shanghai have been young. On April 20, the local government estimated that only one fifth of those with positive results were older than 60 years old, as opposed to 27% in Hong Kong.

Most deaths occurred in these cities among older, unvaccinated individuals with serious health issues.

Shanghai now has more resources for improving vaccination rates in the elderly.

Zhao Dandan the deputy director, municipal health commission, stated that 62% had been given a complete vaccine and 38% received booster shots.

ARE COVID-RELATED SUSPECTS INCLUDED IN DATA

China has not defined what constitutes a COVID-related death. It is speculated that this means not all coronavirus deaths will be included in the statistics.

The Donghai Elderly Care Hospital in Shanghai, Shanghai’s biggest care home for elderly people, has reported that several patients contracted COVID-19 and passed away in March or April. This information was not available in the official records.

Telephone calls to Donghai were unanswered.

According to local media, some crematoria may have been stretched to breaking point.

Local media quoted a representative at Jiading’s funeral home as saying that “the number of deaths doubled over a year ago”

It was impossible to find official data and it is not clear whether additional deaths occurred because of COVID-19. Reuters couldn’t reach the funeral house for comment.

DO YOU HAVE ANOTHER EXPLANATION

According to Zhengming Chen (epidemicologist at Oxford University’s Nuffield Department of Population Health), Shanghai’s mass screening, which included those not sick, may have helped reduce the apparent death rate.

According to a study, the Hong Kong coronavirus may have infected almost half its population, despite having undergone less thorough testing than Shanghai. This could mean that its death rate is also lower.

Zhang Zuofeng (chair of the University of California Los Angeles department of Epidemiology) said that while there were fewer deaths than expected, it was still in line with his estimations.

    “Shanghai has no motivation to deliberately suppress any deaths after the lockdown decision,” he added, noting that more deaths could help justify the city’s unpopular controls.