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Ukraine war curbs euro zone growth in Q1

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: A crowd walks along the La Defense esplanade, in the financial district and the business district of La Defense. This is west of Paris on March 26, 2018. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes

BRUSSELS, (Reuters) – The Euro zone’s economic growth in the first three months was lower than anticipated, preliminary data revealed on Friday. This is because the conflict in Ukraine, which began on February 24, has had a devastating effect on economic activity.

Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, said that the Gross Domestic Product in 19 Euro-States grew 0.2% quarter over quarter. This equated to a 5.0% increase year on year. Reuters polled economists and they expected 0.3% quarterly growth.

Also, the European Commission forecasted that 0.3% quarterly growth would occur just prior to the Russian invasion. Therefore, preliminary Eurostat data would indicate, if later confirmed, that the impact of war and commodity price rises on growth has reduced growth by 0.1 percentage point.

Eurostat stated that Italy’s first quarter economy fell 0.2% compared with the preceding three months. It would have been the most serious casualty of conflict in the euro zone. According to the Commission, Italy’s growth would be 0.3% by February.

Germany, which was forecasted by the Commission as growing 0.4% during the first quarter, grew only 0.2% according to Eurostat. France saw no growth against a February Commission forecast of 0.1%.

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