BEIJING (Reuters – China’s exports are expected to slow down in April due to strict COVID-19 production curbs. Imports will likely continue to decline, which could create severe headwinds for China’s world-second-largest economy during the second quarter.

Trade, which is responsible for approximately a third gross domestic product, and employs 180 million people in 2020 has been losing momentum due to wider anti-virus restrictions that entrap supply chains.

The median forecast of 18 economists at Reuters showed that exports would grow 3.2% compared to a year prior. That is a sharp decline from the 14.7% growth recorded in March. This forecast represents the lowest growth rate since June 2020.

China has suffered from a decline in global trade due to uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine conflict and recovering its production capacities overseas. In April, the new export orders portion of the official manufacturing purchasing manager’s index fell to a low of two years.

The poll revealed that imports are expected to fall 3% in April compared with March’s 0.1% decline and represent the sharpest drop since May 2020.

The poll surveyed sixteen economists and predicted a $50.65 Billion trade surplus for April. This is higher than the March $47.38 billion due to the fall in imports.

On Monday, the trade data will be available.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE) analysts stated in a Friday note that restrictions related to COVID had disrupted the domestic supply chain and ports operations during the month. South Korea and other trading partners reported weaker data on trade with China.

The China Port Association data showed that throughput for foreign goods in eight of China’s major container ports declined by 4.1% from April 11-20.

Premier Li Keqiang urged this week for support in production, logistics, and employment at major trade companies.

Markets and investors want more, so the leaders of the country encourage citizens to continue with their dynamic zero-COVID policies.

China’s capital Beijing reports dozens of infections daily, while Shanghai claimed on Friday that the virus has been brought under control after a monthlong lockdown of almost 25 million people. Some Chinese cities require that people submit PCR tests to be allowed into public areas.

Nomura analysts calculate that it would take 1.8% off China’s GDP to have 70% of its 814million population tested within 48 hours.