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Key ECB rate should be back in positive territory by year end: Villeroy -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO : The south facade at the European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt (Germany) December 30, 2021 is illuminated by a symphony in light that consists of blue, yellow and lines. REUTERS/Wol

FRANKFURT, (Reuters) – The European Central Bank needs to raise its deposit rates back into positive territory in this year’s financial year, Francois Villeroy De Galhau, chief of the French Central Bank, said Friday. These comments suggest that he supports at least three rate increases by 2022.

Although the ECB is slow to withdraw support for this year, record inflation and rising longer-term prices expectations are prompting policymakers to call for a faster end to almost a decade-long experiment in unconventional support.

Villeroy suggested that the ECB stop buying bonds at June’s end, and then increase its minus 0.5% deposits rates during “the next few policy meetings.” Villeroy declined to give a specific lift-off date.

Numerous policymakers recently argued for a July move, and there has been little opposition from policy “doves”, suggesting a summer rate rise is most likely.

Villeroy, a prominent voice in the ECB’s Governing Council said that he would prefer to place a marker a little further down the road. “Barring any unforeseen shocks, it would seem reasonable to be entering positive territory before the end of the year,” Villeroy stated.

The deposit rate is at -0.5%. To get back to positive territory, at least three 25-basis point rate hikes would be necessary, including Villeroy’s first rate increase since 2011.

Villeroy explained that then the bank should gradually increase its nominal rate of interest towards the “neutral”, which is between 1 and 2 percent, an entire percentage below the U.S.

Inflation is at an all-time high, with a rise of longer-term inflation betting. Rate rises are mainly due to this as new surveys show that inflation expectations “less and less” anchored towards the ECB’s 2% target.

In central bank terminology, De-anchoring is when investors begin to doubt the central bank’s ability to achieve its inflation target.

As currency weakness increases import inflation, rate hikes may help to boost the euro’s strength against the dollar.

Villeroy stated, “Important inflation is affected by the level of euro.” Villeroy stated that a weak euro would be detrimental to our goal of price stability.

Villeroy suggested that the ECB might offer a longer-term refinancing option to banks in order to help them cope with reduced ECB support.

Villeroy suggested that a different approach be taken to deal with a possible rise in yields among eurozone members.

The government could offer to purchase bonds temporarily, with an explicit promise to return them after the Turbulence has passed. The liquidity could be absorbed by the institution through liquidity offsetting operations. This is similar to what it did with its Securities Markets Programme.

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