Robin Emmott, Arshad Mohamed

(Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin raised indiscreet the possibility that he would launch a nuclear attack against any person who participated in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Here are the main issues around the possibility that Putin could actually use nuclear weapons, although this is a remote possibility according to many Western diplomats and analysts.

RUSSIA’S COMMENTS ON NUCLEARARMS IN THE UKRAINEWAR

Putin warned that the West could respond to an intervention in what he calls a “specially military operation”, in a speech declaring the invasion of Ukraine.

According to Kremlin translation, he stated that “No matter how many people try to block our path or… threaten our country and our citizens, they must understand that Russia will immediately respond and the consequences would be like nothing you’ve ever seen in all your history.”

On February 27, Putin directed his military command, three days later, to place Russia’s nuke deterrent forces under high alert. He cited what he described as aggressive statements made by NATO leaders and Western economic sanctions that he imposed against Moscow.

Sergei Lavrov of Russia, an experienced diplomat, also spoke out on the dangers of nuclear war. He said that Moscow is doing everything it could to stop one.

I would never want to artificially increase those risks. That would be a common wish. It is very real and serious. It is a real danger that we cannot underestimate,” he stated last week. His remarks prompted the U.S. State Department (USSD) to label his statements “the height and irresponsibility”.

Washington hasn’t seen any indications that Russian nukes are under high alert. However, Western experts warned not to dismiss the statements as mere bluster due to the possibility Putin could use nuclear weapons if he feels trapped in Ukraine or if NATO enters the conflict.

WHAT HAS THE WEST SAY ABOUT PUTIN’S VEILED THREATS

U.S. officials immediately criticized Putin’s remarks about Russian nuclear forces being placed on high alert as dangerous, escalatory, and completely unacceptable. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, however, called them aggressive and irresponsible.

U.S. officials immediately stated that there were no indications of Russian forces altering their nuclear status and that the U.S. military did not feel any need to change its.

Joe Biden, the U.S. president, told Americans on February 28 not to be worried about nuclear war with Russia. Biden responded to the shouted question of whether Americans should worry about nuclear war breaking out.

What are the CHANCES FOR RUSSIA TO USE NUCLEAR WAAPONS?

Biden’s comments seemed to represent a broad view of U.S. officials and experts that Russia has very low chances of using nukes in the Ukraine conflict.

Gideon Rose wrote that every nuclear power leader since 1945 has opposed the use nuclear weapons in war for “excellent reasons” last week.

Putin won’t be the exception. He is aware of the possibility that a wrathful retaliation would ensue, and the consequences could be catastrophic for any strategic advantage.

Experts and diplomats from Western countries said that Russia’s main goal in threatening a nuclear attack seems to be deterring Washington and NATO allies.

A Western diplomat said, “They’re not credible,” due to the sensitive issue. He wants to scare us.”

HOW MIGHT RUSSIA USE AN NUCLEAR WAPON

While Western countries have sent arms to Ukraine after the invasion, Biden said last year that the United States would not send troops.

The United States of America and its allies are not interested in a conventional war against Russia.

Experts saw many options for Russia if they were to use nukes. They could launch a bomb over the Black Sea or uninhabited parts of Ukraine in order to prove their capabilities, as well as strike against an army target or city.

However, any use of a nuclear weapon to attack Ukraine would be a danger for Russian troops.

WHAT CAN THE WEST DO?

Analysts suggested that Washington might choose a more conventional response to the strike than a proportional nuke counter-strike. This could cause harm to U.S. allies and lead directly or indirectly, in some cases, to an increase in nuclear escalation in Europe or the U.S. home.

Daryl Kimball from the Arms Control Association said, “I would rather suggest that the United States (and NATO) respond with overwhelming convention military, political, and diplomatic force in order to further isolate Russia, and to seek an end to the conflict without all-out nuclear warfare.” The Arms Control Association is a non-profit organization that aims to educate the public regarding arms control.

    HOW MIGHT A RUSSIAN STRIKE CHANGE THE NUCLEAR LANDSCAPE?

NATO could seek to modify its U.S. built ballistic missile shield in Poland or Romania, to be able to destroy Russian rockets. NATO long maintained that the current design is designed to combat missiles from Iran and Syria as well as rogue players in the Middle East.

The possibility that a Russian strike would make it more likely for other nuclear powers like India and Pakistan to use these weapons is still unknown. Experts said that it could lead to international condemnation and reduce the possibility of nuclear weapons being used by others.