By Amanda Ferguson

BELFAST, Reuters – Sinn Fein had hoped to be the Irish nation’s first party to win more seats in British-ruled Northern Ireland. On Friday, the counting of votes began. This could signal a significant political shift.

Sinn Fein’s victory would mark a win for the party that wants Northern Ireland to be independent of the United Kingdom, 24 years after the Good Friday agreement ended decades of sectarian violence between those who wanted to unite with Ireland and those who wanted to stay in the UK.

A poll which could bring about unity with Ireland’s neighbours is unlikely to happen for many years. Sinn Fein however wants to plan to move north and south of the border. This is where it is most popular three years ahead of a general elections.

In the end, Sinn Fein received an average 25% support in final polls. That gives the political wing the Irish Republican Army six points ahead of its closest competitor, the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party. (DUP) has suffered a decline in popularity over the last 18 months.

Sinn Fein saw a rise in turnout from 35% to 65% 5 years ago, when the DUP was reduced to one seat. Analysts believed that there was less turnout than expected, as incomplete data suggests. The first results were due by 1300 GMT.

Chris Donnelly (political commentator, former Sinn Fein candidate) stated that Sinn Fein must have the same type of first preference percentage advantage as some polls indicated if they want to be the largest party by terms of votes won.

On paper, they have a harder task holding on to the 2017 seat gains. This could very well be close.

Northern Ireland’s system of proportional representation allows candidates to pick up extra votes from the elected and eliminated. This gives a larger party, such as the DUP, a greater chance at winning final seats in multi-seat constituencies.

The 1998 first preference vote was narrowly won by the Irish nationalist SDLP Party, but it still placed four seats below its main rival unionist party.

BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS

Under the 1998 peace agreement, the main unionist and nationalist rivals must share power. However, the DUP stated it would not do so unless all aspects of the protocol that governs Northern Ireland’s commerce with the UK in the aftermath of its withdrawal from the European Union are completely overhauled.

Talks between Britain and EU over the removal of many checks on goods entering Northern Ireland via the UK are in a deadlock. This was imposed by the protocol to prevent fraying of EU’s single market through open borders with Ireland.

Sammy Wilson of DUP, British parliament member, stated that “the assembly cannot function” if poisonous protocol remains.

This outcome could also reaffirm that most lawmakers, including Sinn Fein in the regional assembly, favor keeping the protocol. The majority of Northern Ireland’s voters chose to stay in the EU during Britain’s Brexit referendum in 2016. This result was narrower than in other countries.