Gloria Dickie

LONDON (Reuters] – There is a half chance that the earth will warm 1.5 degrees Celsius more than pre-industrial levels by 2026. This was according to Monday’s statement from World Meteorological Organization.

However, this does not mean the globe will exceed the 1.5C temperature limit (2.7 degree Fahrenheit) that scientists set for long-term climate mitigation.

However, a year of temperature rise at 1.5C might give us a glimpse of how it would feel to cross that threshold over the long term.

Petteri Talas, Secretary-General of WMO, stated that the WMO is moving closer to temporary reaching the Paris Agreement’s lower target. He was referring specifically to the 2015 climate agreement.

Since 2015, scientists have been increasing the likelihood that 1.5C will be exceeded in a very short time. In 2020, they expect a 20% chance. Last year’s estimate was up to 40%. A 1.5C increase in temperature can cause catastrophic effects such as the death of coral reefs worldwide and the shrinkage of Arctic sea ice.

According to the long-term global average, it is about 1.1C cooler than the preindustrial average.

Maxx Dilley is the WMO’s deputy climate director. He stated, “Loss of and damage as a result of, or exacerbated thereby, climate change already occurs, some of which likely irreversible in the near future.”

World leaders pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement to prevent crossing the long-term 1.5C threshold – measured as a multi-decadal average – but so far have fallen short on cutting climate-warming emissions. Current policies and activities today have put the world on track for warming by about 3.2C before the end of this century.

Kim Cobb of Georgia Institute of Technology said, “It is crucial to remember that once the temperature reaches 1.5C, it will be difficult for us to avoid worsening effects as we reach 1.6C,1.7C, or any other increment of warming,”