Hyonhee Shin

SEOUL (Reuters). – South Korean President Yoon Suk-yel may face a challenge in his plan to provide economic assistance as a condition of denuclearisation. This is despite the looming threat from North Korean nuclear tests. Analysts warn that such requests have been rejected previously.

Yoon has warned that there will be a “tense” security situation. He cited the potential nuclear test. The U.S. officials and South Korean officials said it could take place as soon as next month, after Pyongyang ended a March 2017 moratorium for long-range missile tests.

Analysts suggest that such a test by the North would serve as a reality-check for Yoon’s plans to reward denuclearisation through “audacious” economic rewards, which were revealed in his Tuesday inauguration speech.

Yoon and his colleagues have not provided any details about how they will bring Pyongyang back to the table. But some analysts said North Korea is unlikely to accept any aid-for-denuclearisation deal, as its nuclear and missile programmes are mature and still advancing.

Park Wongon from Ewha Womans University Seoul said, “It was a conciliatory message but North Korea would not accept this line of reasoning, that the South would help to develop its own economy, if it denuclearizes.” They see that as a way to reject their regime.

Park said that Pyongyang had repeatedly stated in the last decade that it will not give up its nuclear programs in return for economic benefits.

Yang Moo–jin, a Seoul-based professor of North Korean Studies, mentioned a similar offer made by Lee Myungbak, a former conservative president.

Lee had, as part of his Vision 3000 initiative, promised North Korea economic assistance. This would be in return for the North’s surrendering its missile and nuclear programs and opening up to the rest of the world.

Pyongyang called the plot a plot against its regime. Inter-Korean relations remained cold throughout Lee’s five year tenure. Yoon served as the Lee administration’s top aides. This included his national security advisor and deputy.

Yang indicated that “The offer by the new government might provoke backlash in North.” Yang stated that while he does open up the possibility of dialogue, he did not propose any talks. The idea is passive and unrealistic and would be unlikely to succeed.

On Wednesday, Yoon nominated Kim Kyouhyun to the position of director at the National Intelligence Service. This will oversee inter-Korean affairs as well as denuclearization talks.

Lee Jongsup, Yoon’s newly appointed defence minister, met online for the first time with top commanding officers following his Tuesday take-over. He called for a tight readiness to face “omnidirectional security threats”

According to him, the “security situation on the Korean Peninsula” is gravely affected by North Korea’s increasing missile threats and potential nuclear testing.

According to a ministry statement, Lee instructed the military “sternly” and “immediately” to react to North’s “direct provocation”.