(Reuters) – Morgan Stanley (NYSE: ) Forecasts for this year’s economic growth in the global economy are less than half those of 2021, due to risk from Russia-Ukraine conflict. COVID-19 surges in China.

Global growth is expected to average 2.9%. This compares with 6.2% in 2021 on a year by year basis.

Morgan Stanley economists stated that “the deceleration has been global and driven by the combination waning fiscal stimulus, tightening monetary policy, a continual drag from Covid supply chain frictions and most recently, the repercussions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” In a Tuesday memo, they wrote.

Oil and commodity prices have shot up since Russia’s incursion in Ukraine has been sanctioned. It has exacerbated inflationary pressures worldwide and forced central banks and governments into a reassessment of their monetary policies.

China’s COVID-19 stricter curbs on factory production have caused a halt in domestic demand and stopped manufacturing. It has taken a significant toll on China’s economy. With export growth declining to the lowest level for almost two years, it is now at its weakest point.

Morgan Stanley economists see little upside in economic growth with the Ukraine crisis still unresolved and central banks around the world trying to control inflation.

In an attempt to deal with an increase in inflation, the central banks of U.S.A and UK joined the ranks of other major economies last week.

Morgan Stanley noted that the slow global growth is broad-based. India and Japan are the only major economies for which there has not been a significant slowdown.

The brokerage stated that they don’t see the global GDP trending back to pre-Covid in the future.