LONDON, (Reuters) – Around 4.8 Million jobs were lost in Ukraine after the Russian invasion of February. The conflict caused a halt to businesses and exports, which drove people fleeing.

According to the ILO, around 30% of Ukraine’s workers lost their jobs before the invasion. However, if hostilities continue the ILO stated in a study that 7 million people could lose their jobs. It also said that 3.4million of those jobs would be available for a quick return in the event there is a truce.

As migrant workers from Russia leave, the war will cause unemployment and could lead to increased unemployment in countries neighboring those hosting thousands of refugees.

Russian troops have attacked Ukrainian cities, killing thousands and forcing more than 5,000,000 people to flee. This could lead to Ukraine’s economic collapse by as much as one third in 2022.

According to the study, economic disruptions are combined with mass internal displacements and flow of refugees causing huge losses in employment and income.

According to it, “Russian aggression against Ukraine has caused a devastating humanitarian crisis that triggered the largest forced population movement ever since the Second World War.”

Nearby countries, such as Poland or Romania, have taken in the majority of the refugees. An estimated 1.2million of them were workers prior to the invasion.

According to the study, prolonged conflict can put pressure on these countries’ welfare systems and labour markets, which could lead to higher unemployment.

It stated that “as an exercise in hypotheses, including these refugees to increase the number of unemployment in Poland would cause the unemployment rate to rise from 3% to 5.3 percent.”

There is also the possibility of a ripple effect from war on Central Asia, where many countries are dependent upon remittances received by Russian migrants.

According to the study, a Russian economic center could be squeezed by Western sanctions or the cost of war. This could result in migrant workers leaving Russia and moving home.

The war in Ukraine in global terms is increasing food and energy costs, and threatening job growth, particularly for low- and middle-income countries still recovering from the coronavirus epidemic, said the report.