What Marcos presidency means for US, China ties
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Ferdinand “BongBong” Marcos Jr. is in for a landslide win in the Philippines. This photo was taken at his campaign headquarters, Mandaluyong City (Madison), Monday.
Veejay Villafranca/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Philippines’ next president will be Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
The unofficial vote count so far shows that Bongbong, as he’s popularly known at home, is set for a landslide victory — pulling ahead by a wide marginHis closest competitor, Leni Robredo (incumbent Vice President). Official results will be announced near the end the month.
Victor Manhit (managing director of an advisory firm), stated that a Marcos Jr. presidency will be very different than the six years under President Rodrigo Duterte. BowerGroupAsia.
“Duterte, who was mayor in a small city and later became mayor of the country, is a man that I can call a president. Marcos Jr. has a much more global upbringing. He understands more about what’s happening all around the globe,” Marcos Jr. told CNBC on Tuesday.
This is what it means in foreign policy
Because the United States and China have a major theater in Southeast Asia, the countries of the region often find themselves between them.
This context will closely monitor Marcos Jr.’s presidency. China and a host of other countries are involved in disputes over maritime rights in the South China Sea. These include Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines.
Marcos Jr. began his campaign with a friendly attitude towards China when he launched it. Manhit stated that Marcos Jr. was capable of listening to the concerns expressed by the Filipino population about China’s aggressive behavior in certain areas.
He said that Marcos Jr. could have a different sense of where the Philippines is in the world than Duterte and would drive the Philippines policy in an entirely opposite direction.
An analyst stated, however that the leader of the future will probably have less maneuverability than his predecessor.
The Philippines attempted to reach out, but China refused. That is why the Duterte government has re-embraced the U.S. alliance and gotten tougher on Beijing over the last two years,” said Gregory Poling, a senior fellow and director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in a note.
Poling claimed that “the Philippine public and the bureaucracy have become more distrustful towards China” than they were six-years ago after their landmark South China Sea arbitration victory.
He said that Marcos Jr. may try to revive Duterte’s earlier outreach to Beijing but that he was unlikely to throw the U.S. Alliance overboard in the course of his efforts.
This is what it means to trade and business
Although the Philippines was one the most dynamically growing economies before 2019, Covid-19 ravaged its economy and destroyed the remittance-driven model.
Marcos, the man who inherits a significant budget deficit after the disaster caused by the pandemic, hasn’t yet shared his plans for getting the economy on its feet.
But, there are signs that infrastructure development will form a major part of his agenda.
Frank Thiel is the president of AmCham Philippines and said he’s “mildly hopeful” Marcos will support Duterte’s projects.
Duterte said “Build, Build and Build” has proven to be a success and we expect that this will be expanded and continued.” He was referring specifically to Duterte’s iconic infrastructure project, which Duterte hopes will help reduce poverty and create jobs in the country.
“It is clear infrastructure development will be a core part of Marcos’ agenda — even if questions remain over the precise priorities, how he will finance these, and the extent to which private/foreign capital will be utilized,” said Peter Mumford, practice head for South and Southeast Asia at Eurasia Group, in the note on Tuesday.
According to Thiel, the Marcos presidency may mean that the Philippines and U.S. can reach a new free trade deal on the trade front.
This may offer a chance. It is a brand new administration. Thiel spoke to CNBC about new ideas and plans for new programs. “Squawk Box Asia”On Tuesday.
Marcos is broadly pro-FDI but one of the key watchpoints under his administration will be whether corruption and cronyism—already notable risks in the Philippines—worsen.
Peter Mumford
Practice Head, South & Southeast Asia, Eurasia Group
“Marcos is broadly pro-FDI but one of the key watchpoints under his administration will be whether corruption and cronyism — already notable risks in the Philippines — worsen,” Mumford said.
The fact that he won a landslide election victory in his favor is an advantage. It gives him a solid start to his presidency.
“In particular, it will create a strong initial gravitational pull on members of Congress — particularly helpful with the Senate, which tends to be more independent-minded — and will mean more technocrats/economists will be willing to serve in his cabinet,” Mumford said.
— Abigail Ng from CNBC contributed to this report.
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