By Riham Alkousaa

BERLIN, (Reuters) – A Sunday election in Germany’s biggest state will be a test for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrats. It comes five months after he was elected with a policy focused on Germany that quickly became overshadowed by the conflict in Ukraine.

Nico Siegel (executive director at pollster Infratest dimap) stated that “North Rhine-Westphalia always signals an important signal to federal politics.”

The Social Democrats (SPD), a centre-left party, dominated North Rhine-Westphalia for the majority of the 20th century. It was home to nearly a fifth Germany’s population as well as the rust-belt Ruhr area.

However, the party lost to Angela Merkel (CDU) in 2017’s worst state elections. The CDU was criticized for not tackling traffic jams and rising crime rates. It also lost a historic defeat at the federal level a few months later.

Both parties were extremely close before Sunday’s polls. The CDU held a slightly higher lead of 32% to 28% for SPD in a INSA-published survey on Thursday.

Siegel stated, “An election win would radiate in a positive way into discussions about Olaf Scholz’s popularity and the SPD’s strength in federal government.”

The NRW election could also be seen as a boost for Germany’s Greens party. This group has the potential to become the kingmaker.

Since 2017, the CDU, in coalition with FDP and business-friendly CDU, has been governing the state. Even with a slight edge over SPD, the CDU has governed the state in a coalition with the FDP (business-friendly FDP) since 2017.

Recent polls show that the Greens have gotten around 16% support, meaning either party will likely need them to form a government.

LOCAL ISSUES

In Schleswig-Holstein (a smaller state in northern Germany), the CDU won a landslide victory last week. But in NRW the CDU will struggle to secure votes.

Voters’ choices in state elections are often influenced by local issues like affordable rents or public transport.

Siegel claimed that no single topic was responsible for determining the behavior of voters across political parties. CDU’s 2017 victory was based on its focus on traffic jams, increasing crime and an inefficient education system.

Forsa’s head pollster Manfred Guellner told Reuters that voters are concerned about job security as well as the effects of structural changes resulting from the demise of coal-fired power stations.

Partly due to the popularity of Daniel Guenther, state premier of CDU in Schleswig-Holstein, CDU won this election. In NRW its candidate Hendrik Wüest has only recently taken office as a member of the legislature in October, so he is still establishing a base.

Wuest will be running against Thomas Kutschaty (the SPD candidate), who was a state minister of justice from 2010 to 2017.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz calls the state his home, so it is unlikely that this will help them win the election. According to a Forsa poll, only 13% believe Merz is a better choice than Scholz for the role of chancellor.

Forsa’s Guellner declared, “To put it bluntly: Merz does nothing to help at any, on the contrary.”