Laila Basam, Timour Azhari, and Maya Geobeily

BEIRUT (Reuters] – Iran’s Hezbollah was dealt a setback in Lebanon’s parliamentary elections. Preliminary results showed losses for its older allies, while the Saudi-aligned Lebanese Forces party claimed it had won seats.

The final composition of the 128 member parliament is still to be determined, with votes still being counted. Hezbollah, a heavily-armed Shi’ite Muslim organization won the majority of 71 seats in 2018, when Lebanon last voted.

After the massive port explosion of 2020 in Beirut, the World Bank has blamed the current elections for Lebanon’s economic collapse.

The most shocking upset was when Talal Arslan (a Hezbollah-allied Druze politician) lost his seat to Mark Daou. Mark Daou is a newcomer who ran on a reform agenda according to Mark’s campaign manager, and an official of Hezbollah.

In the initial results, there were wins for at most five independents. They campaigned with a platform for reform and holding accountable those responsible for guiding Lebanon into its worst crisis since 1975-1990.

It is uncertain whether Hezbollah’s allies or Hezbollah can hold onto a majority. This depends on the final results. These include those in Sunni Muslim seats that are being contested both by Shi’ites and their allies.

The Lebanese Forces, which opposes Hezbollah vehemently, reported gains that would see it overtake FPM (Hezbollah-allied Free Patriotic Movement) as the largest Christian party in parliament.

Antoinette Geoagea, head of the LF’s press office said that the LF has won 20 more seats than it did in 2018.

According to Sayed Younes (head of the electoral machine), FPM has won 16 seats down from 18.

Since President Michel Aoun’s return from exile, in 2005 in France, the FPM has been parliament’s largest Christian party. Aoun was a civil war foe, as was Samir Geagea, leader of the LF.

The LF was established during the 15-year civil war in Lebanon as a militia and has called repeatedly on Hezbollah for its surrender of its weapons.

“A NEW BEGINNING”

In an area in southern Lebanon controlled by Hezbollah, an opposition candidate made another breakthrough.

Elias Jradi (an eye doctor) won an Orthodox Christian slot previously held By Assaad Hartan of The Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party. This was a close Hezbollah ally, and MP since 1992. Two Hezbollah officials stated that Jradi had been elected.

“It’s a new beginning for the south and for Lebanon as a whole,” Jradi told Reuters.

Nadim Houry (executive director, Arab Reform Initiative) stated that the result of the 14- or 15 seat results would decide the majority.

He stated that there would be two opposing blocs – one being Hezbollah, its allies and the other Lebanese Forces, its allies, with new voices in the middle.

This is an obvious loss for FPM. While they still have a bloc, the FPM lost quite a few seats. Their biggest beneficiary was the Lebanese Forces. Samir Geagea is the new Christian strongman.

In order to create a cabinet, the next parliament will need to nominate a prime Minister. This can be a lengthy process. Any delay will impede the implementation of reforms needed to deal with the crisis, and allow for support from donor nations and the International Monetary Fund.