Brenda Goh and Kevin Yao

SHANGHAI/BEIJING – Monday saw Shanghai announce plans to return to normal from June 1. This will also mark the end of the COVID-19 lockdown. The COVID-19 lockdown lasted for more than six weeks, and has contributed significantly in China’s slowdown of economic activity.

Shanghai’s deputy mayor Zong Ming gave a clear timeline. He said that Shanghai’s opening would take place in stages. The movement restrictions will largely remain in effect until May 21, to avoid a rebound in infection, and then gradually ease.

She stated that “from June 1 to June 2, as long as there are no new infections, we will implement full epidemic prevention and control. Normalize management and restore normal production and living in the city.”

Shanghai’s complete lockdown and COVID curts on hundreds and millions of people and workers from dozens of cities has hurt retail sales and industrial production. There are also fears that the economy will shrink during the second quarter.

These severe restrictions are becoming more out of sync with the rest the world. They have been lifting COVID rules as the spread of infections has occurred, and they also send shockwaves through international supply chains.

According to data released Monday, China’s April industrial production fell by 2.9% from the previous year. This is a sharp decline from March’s 5.0% rise. Meanwhile, retail sales declined 11.1% from March after falling 3.5% in March.

They were both well below what was expected.

According to analysts, economic activity showed some improvement in May. To speed it up, the government will deploy further stimulus measures.

The uncompromising China “zero COVID” policy to eradicate all diseases at any cost makes it difficult for the recovery to be strong.

“China’s economy could see a more meaningful recovery in the second half, barring a Shanghai-like lockdown in another major city,” said Tommy Wu, lead China economist at Oxford Economics.

The outlook is tipped to the negative, and the efficacy of any policy stimuli will be largely determined by the size of COVID epidemics or lockdowns in the future.

Beijing has found dozens of cases every day almost since April 22nd, providing strong evidence of the difficulty in tackling this highly transmissible Omicron variant.

Although Beijing hasn’t implemented a lockdown across the city, it has tightened curbs so that Beijing traffic levels are comparable to Shanghai’s according to GPS data from Baidu (NASDAQ).

Beijing gave guidance on how to work remotely in four cities, Sunday. Beijing, which has already prohibited dine-in restaurants and severely restricted public transport among other actions, extended guidance to work from home on Sunday.

TRANSPORTS AND PLANES

The Shanghai deputy mayor stated that the city will reopen convenience and supermarket stores, pharmacies, and other shops starting Monday. However, many restrictions on movement had to be in place at least until May 21.

We don’t know how many businesses are now open.

Zong explained that China’s railway operator would gradually increase the number and departures of trains from Beijing starting Monday. Domestic flights will be increased by airlines as well.

Bus and rail transit services will gradually resume operation starting May 22. However, people must show a positive COVID test no later than 48 hours before they can take public transportation.

Many Shanghai residents were disappointed by the shifting of the schedules to lift restrictions during the lockdown.

Last week, notices were sent to many residential properties that the property would remain in silent mode for three days. This means they will not be able leave their home and may even refuse deliveries. The silent period was extended until May 20, according to another notice.

One member of the public posted, “Please don’t lie to us this time,” on Weibo (NASDAQ) social media platform. He also added a crying emoticon.

Shanghai has reported that there were fewer than 1,000 cases in May 15th, and this was all within the areas subject to strict controls.

There were no cases in the more remote areas where the epidemic was being controlled.

A third day is usually a sign that the “zeroCOVID” status was reached and can be used to allow for more freedoms. 15 of 16 city districts were “zero COVID”

Beijing has reported 53 new cases, an increase of 41.