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CEO outlook dims sharply, with more than half expecting a recession ahead, survey shows

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According to Wednesday’s closely monitored business survey, corporate executives have a negative view of the future. The majority expect a recession.

According to the Conference Board, 57% expected inflation to fall “over the next few decades” while the economy would experience a “very brief, mild recession”.

These results mirror a general pessimistic tone of the quarterly gauge. Measure of CEO ConfidenceThe number of respondents fell to 42. This is a sharp drop from the first quarter’s record 57, and it was the lowest level since the beginning of the Covid pandemic. A negative outlook is defined as a number below 50 that measures respondents’ expectations of expansion over contraction.

Roger Ferguson, Vice Chairman of The Business Council, and trustee of The Conference Board told CNBC that this reading was consistent with “slowing for certain”.Squawk BoxIn an interview after the publication of this report.

This all tells us that inflation is too high to quote. [Federal Reserve Chairman] Jay PowellFerguson said that wages are rising but not keeping pace with inflation and the inability of passing all this on is creating a challenging dynamic.” Ferguson was a former Fed Vice Chair.

Not only was the recession forecast reading bad, but so were the other negative news.

Only 14% reported business conditions improved in Q2, compared to 34% for the first quarter. Similar to the previous reading, 61% reported that conditions are worse than 35%. Only 19% expect improvement, which is down from 50%. However, 60% see worsening conditions, an increase of 23%.

A good piece of news was the fact that 63% anticipate hiring in the next quarter. That’s down from 66% in Q1. However, 80% of respondents said that they are having difficulty finding qualified employees, a slight decrease from Q1. Meanwhile, 91% expect wages to rise by at least 3% in the coming year, an increase of 85% over the previous three months.

Only 38% of respondents expect to raise capital spending. This is a significant drop from 48%. 20% view stagflation as low growth with high inflation.

Powell in an interview TuesdayAccording to the Wall Street Journal, he stated that he is determined to reduce inflation and that conditions must change before the Fed raises rates or tightens monetary policy.

Ferguson stated that the survey suggests “that this set of conditions is not likely to improve anytime soon” and therefore pressures on businesses’ middle and bottom lines, household sectors, CEOs, the Federal Reserve, and pressures on their finances.

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