By Marcelo Teixeira

NEW YORK, (Reuters) – The first quarter saw a positive recovery in coffee demand from non-producing nations, but there were signs that future quarters could see a slowdown in China and Russia, Rabobank analysts said in a Friday report.

According to it, “coffee disappearedance”, a term that indicates the percentage of non-producing coffee countries actually drinking and not packaging for export, increased 6.9% in its first quarter. This is a difference from the year before. At 9%, the European Union and UK area experienced a greater increase. The United States saw an increase of 4.6%, Japan 5.1%, respectively.

Rabobank stated that the figures are not as high today than they were in pre-pandemic times. Only 0.6% was achieved in the quarter that ended January 2020 (Q1 2020).

According to analysts, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine as well as Chinese Covid lockdowns might reduce the demand for coffee in these countries. High retail prices can also hurt Brazil, the top producer and the second biggest global coffee customer after the United States.

Rabobank predicts a 25% drop in Russian coffee consumption and a 50% decrease in Ukraine’s coffee usage.

According to the bank, global coffee supply balance will shift from a deficit (5.1 million 60-kg bags) in 2021/22 Oct-Sept to an excess of 1.7million bags by 2022/23.

In line with market expectations, it maintained its Brazilian 2022 production estimate at 64.5 millions bags.

Brazil’s Conab food supply agency cut its crop to just 53.4 million bags Thursday.

Rabobank has however reduced its outlook for Colombian crops from 11.8 million bags to 2021/22, although it expects to see a rebound to 13.4 millions bags in 2022/23.