Silvia Aloisi and Pavel Polityuk

KYIV, Reuters – Ukraine wants to be able to export its grain and oils by breaking the months-old blockade of Black Sea and Sea of Azov by Russia’s navy. They are also moving by land more.

Due to Western sanctions on Russia and the war, prices for grain, oil, fertilizer, and other commodities have soared.

The threat of a global crisis in food supply is also posed by this dependence on Russia, Ukraine and other countries for more than half of all their wheat imports.

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for almost a third global wheat supply. This importance was underscored by an Indian export ban as well as adverse weather conditions in North America.

Ukraine is also an important exporter of corn and sunflower oil. Belarus and Russia, which have backed Moscow during the conflict and are also subject to sanctions, account for more than 40% of all global crop nutrient potash exports.

How much GRAIN IS STUCK in UKRAINE

Ukraine’s most important industry, grain, is worth $12.2 billion. In 2021 it accounted for close to a fifth.

Ukraine exported 98%, or 6,000,000 tonnes, of its cereals, oilseeds, via the Black Sea before the war. Most of Ukraine’s exports were made by rail because it is more expensive.

However, due to the blockage of ports and inability of the railway system to handle this extra volume, exports are currently limited at 1-1.5million tonnes per month.

Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary-of-State, accused Russia last week of using Ukraine’s food supply as a weapon. He held “hostage supplies” for millions of people around the globe. According to the Kremlin, the West is responsible for triggering the current crisis through imposing sanctions on Moscow.

An official from the U.N. Food Agency stated that 25 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain had been stuck in Ukraine since May 1, due to structural problems and naval blockade. U.N. agencies face increasing prices and are forced to cut food aid for refugees or displaced persons by as much as half, in some parts of Sahel.

WHY CAN THE GRAINS NOT GET OUT OFF UKRAINE BY LAKE?

The Ukrainian railway system is different to European neighbors like Poland. Therefore, exporting grain by rail can be difficult.

Kyiv also increased efforts to ship via Constanta, a Romanian Black Sea port. According to Florin Goidea, the manager of the port, about 240,000 tonnes (or 1%) of Ukraine’s grain had been shipped through by Reuters as of May 2.

The process of rerouting grain from Romania to Romania requires transporting by rail to port on the Danube and then loading the cargoes onto barges to sail towards Constanta. This can be costly and complicated.

WHAT OTHER OPTIONS ARE DISCUSSED?

Western nations have long discussed setting up safe corridors to enable grain from Ukraine to be exported.

Officials warn that such a corridor is not possible without Russian approval.

Ukraine says it needs “guarantees of security”, with deputy economy minister Taras Kachka telling Reuters last week that having “vessels of third countries in the area …would be an ideal situation.”

According to Interfax, Russia’s foreign minister stated that it would consider lifting sanctions against Russia if Ukraine responded to the United Nations’ appeal for access to the Black Sea ports.

Drifting mines at the Black Sea make things more complicated. Each side accuses another of planting them.

These shipping lanes are also likely to have high insurance costs.

Due to a lack of storage space for grain in Ukraine, the situation is now more urgent. The next crop of Ukraine will be harvested starting July.

Research centre APK Inform says that up to 35% could be left over in Ukraine’s total storage of 61 million tons by 2021 crops.