Suleiman Al Khalidi, Orhan Coskun

AMMAN/ANKARA – Russia’s and Syria’s government forces are being bolstered in north Syria. Turkey might soon start an offensive against Kurdish rebel fighters. Officials from Turkey and rebel Syrian said this as Ankara is preparing to meet with Moscow.

Two weeks ago, President Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkey will launch military operations against Syria. The new “safe zones” are 30-km (20 miles) in depth along the border. They target the Tal Rifaat region and Manbij areas as well as other regions further east.

Russia warned against military escalation of northern Syria at weekend. It sent Sergei Lavrov, its Foreign Minister, to Ankara for talks on Wednesday.

They have strong ties. Ankara tried to broker talks with Russia over Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, their support of opposing sides in Syria could put President Vladimir Putin in a difficult spot.

Erdogan is also at risk. A Turkish offensive without Russia’s approval, which is the powerful ally of President Bashar Al-Assad, would pose additional danger of civilian casualties. Russia and Turkey both have resisted each other’s military ambitions during Syria’s war. At times they even came close to confrontation.

While there are no signs yet of significant Turkish military buildup at the border, rocket and artillery firefights seem to have increased in frequency over the past few weeks.

A Turkish attack on the Kurdish YPG militia (a crucial part of U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces) would result in its destruction. This group controls large parts north Syria, and Washington considers it an important ally to Islamic State. Ankara regards it as terrorist organization and an extension of militant Kurdistan Workers Party.

A spokesperson for Turkey’s Syrian National Army (SNA), stated that Russia had strengthened positions close to Tal Rifaat and Manbij in the south outskirts Kobani. These are all cities within 40km (25miles) of the Turkish border.

Major Youssef Hammoud stated to Reuters that the Syrian regime as well as its Iranian militias had mobilized since the announcement of this operation.

    Their intelligence had spotted Russian helicopters landing at an air base close to Tal Rifaat, he added.

Turkey’s state-owned Anadolu news media reported on Saturday that Russia was making moves in Syria “to consolidate its control”, saying Russian reconnaissance planes flew over Tal Rifaat while setting up Pantsir S1 air defence systems at Qamishli. This is a border settlement nearly 400 km east.

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said that Damascus must use its air defense systems against Turkish aircrafts on Sunday. His forces are “open” for cooperation with Syrian troops fighting off Turkey but not to send additional forces.

LAVROV: TALKS

Ankara claims it has to act after Washington and Moscow made promises not to allow the YPG more than 30km (18 miles) away from the border following a Turkish offensive in 2019. Both Turkey and Russia are seeking Turkey’s help over Ukraine so the conflict might give them some leverage.

Washington’s support for the SDF is a long-standing source of tension in relations with Turkey. Washington expressed concern that any new operation could put at risk U.S. forces – who have a presence there – as well as regional stability.

Russia said that Turkey should “refrain from taking actions that could cause a serious deterioration to the already dangerous situation in Syria” last week.

According to a senior Turkish official, Lavrov will be questioned about the intelligence he claimed pointed out that Iran-backed and Syrian forces were either heading towards Tal Rifaat (or arriving there).

An official speaking under anonymity said that Turkey will perform this operation “one way or the other”.

Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, said reporters that Russia is strengthening its positions in Syria’s north.

Although the Syrian government doesn’t comment on troop movements in Syria, the pro-government newspaper al-Watan reported Monday that sources from northern Raqqa, near the Turkish border, claimed that Syrian troops, tanks, and heavy weapons were deployed to the area over the weekend as a response to Turkish actions.

Both the Turkish official Hammoud and Hammoud from SNA stated that attacks on SDF-controlled territories against Turkish and SNA areas have increased. Hammoud claimed that SNA forces and the Turkish government were responding.