Amazon is Gaining Share Again in Consumable Space
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© Reuters. Amazon (AMZN), is making share again consumable space – GuggenheimAmazon (NASDAQ:) seems to have regained its market share in the consumable category, according to Seth Sigman, a Guggenheim analyst. He cited their channel checks as well as data from Numerator in his Monday note to clients.
The firm’s analysis focused on grocery, pet, and health & beauty. The data showed Amazon’s shares of consumable “trips” was up +40 bps y/y through April. After declining for the majority of last year, Amazon’s share of trips including consumables increased by +1% in April to 34% of all trips. The purchase frequency has also accelerated from a high level.
Sigman said, “We have verified with many suppliers and sellers 3P that trends have improved in recent months.”
“It’s not clear that Amazon has truly cracked the code on grocery/related (e.g., we still see a wide range in market share within categories when dissecting sales down to a deeper level),” he added. But our primary conclusion is that AMZN seems to be back in the trend.
Sigman says there’s some stability in out-ofstock rates. Also, fulfillment times are faster. Retail traffic is also starting to level off and normalize for consumable retailers. The analyst says that historically, growth in consumable units has had an opposite relationship to retail traffic.
Additionally, analysis by the company shows that monthly app session and direct engagement users have been growing at record rates over the past year. Amazon is investing more in marketing than its competitors, which supports the assertion.
Overall, Sigman said implications are positive, potentially addressing two major overhangs on this stock – 1) Worries about Amazon’s ability to gain as much market share as it did in the past, 2) Weakening retail profitability given that volume could offset the cost pressure problems.
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