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Prospects of Iran nuclear talks going smoothly are ‘bleak’: Eurasia

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After a meeting of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran nuclear deal negotiations in Vienna (Austria), May 1, 2021, officials were seen leaving Grand Hotel Wien.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

According to Eurasia Group, political risk consultant Eurasia Group, time may soon be short for Iran and the U.S. to resume nuclear negotiations as Tehran advances its nuclear program.

Analysts stated that Iran’s nuclear advances are fast approaching the point where the nuke deal’s benefits for nonproliferation will not be recoverable without significant changes. Tehran would then balk at such drastic measures.

They said that Iran’s knowledge of how to use advanced centrifuges to enrich uranium is making the deal more important than ever. However, this has reduced chances of an agreement being made.

Eurasia analysts Henry Rome & Jeffrey Wright wrote in an October 4 note that even negotiations could restart, all odds favor an Iran nuke deal not being made this year.

Aukus’ moral potential could weaken the nuclear non-proliferation system, which would strengthen Iran’s hopes and ambitions.

Asif Shuja

Senior Fellow, National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute

Aukus complications

CNBC heard from experts who were worried about the impact of this news on their lives. the nuclear submarine deal between Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. (Aukus)Iran could be affected by its nuclear ambitions.

It three countries announced a new security partnership last monthIt aims at strengthening peace and stability throughout the Indo-Pacific while China expands its reach. This partnership includes the nuclear submarine agreement.

Asif Shuja is a Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. He said that Aukus offers Iran “moral leverage” in the standoff it has with the U.S. That’s because the U.S. claims it wants to limit nuclear proliferation — yet Washington is helping Australia acquire submarines that will likely run on weapons-grade uranium.

He stated in an email that Aukus had the potential to undermine the nuclear nonproliferation regime’s morality. That strengthens Iran’s ambitions and chances.

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James Acton (co-director of the nuclear policy program), said the submarine deal sets “damaging precedent”. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in a September commentary

He stated that Australia must be the first state non-nuclear weapon to open a loophole to allow it to take nuclear material out of inspection systems at the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Acton stated that other countries could, such as Iran, use their naval reactor programs in order to hide the fact they have developed nuclear weapons. He argued that there is less risk of backlash against removing nukes from inspections, as Australia has been allowed to do so.

However, not everyone is on the same page.

Behnam Behnam, senior fellow with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said Australia is not like Iran when it come to non-proliferation agreements. The latter were described as harassing IAEA inspectors and “actively impeding them”.

He said, “Being concerned about Iran’s ability to abuse the Aukus precedent is too worrying.”

Is there anything else?

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