Julien Ponthus takes a look at the days ahead.

The Physics Nobel Prize for this year honored scientists who have developed systems to help understand the earth’s changing climate patterns.

However, their research will not answer one of the most important questions dominating financial markets: How cold or warm will it be this winter, what impact that will have on oil and gas prices and, consequently, on inflation.

Futures are at $84 per barrel today, and Russian President Vladimir Putin believes prices may reach $100.

Although the world is now free from 1970s petrol dependency, the International Energy Agency warns that the global energy crisis could exacerbate inflation and slow down economic recovery.

Fears of supply chain problems, production bottlenecks, and labor shortages fuel fears that the economy could slow enough to cause a stagflationary situation.

That said, Americans who filed new unemployment claims fell 19 months ago, suggesting that there was a shortage rather than a weakening of labour demand that caused slower job growth.

The debate between doves and hawks is about the best policy responses.

James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Fed, urged the U.S. central banking to fast taper. Silvana Tenreyro from BoE was more concerned about short-term effects on inflation like energy prices and suggested that rate increases to address them would only be self-destructive.

The markets are not worried about stagflation, but world stock futures have reached three week highs, while European and U.S. equity options are rising after an encouraging Asian session.

Wall Street was the star of the show on Thursday, when it posted its largest daily percentage increase since March early, while JPMorgan, Citi, Well Fargo, Bank of America and Bank of America (NYSE) all surpassed estimates to record Q3 profits of $28.7 Billion.

After tiptoeing above -0.10%, bond yields have fallen to their lowest levels in 10 years. Germany’s Bund is now at -0.18% and 10-year Treasury yields hitting 10-day lows. Stay tuned for U.S. retail sales data and inflation expectations data later today.

The following are key developments which should give more direction to the markets Friday

Investors eye the first U.S.-based ETFs as Bitcoin closes to $60,000

China looks to secure U.S. LNG, as the energy crisis raises questions-sources

The 2021 forecast for iron ore shipping from Rio Tinto is a labour crunch.

After a strong quarter, -Hugo Boss has a positive outlook for 2021

German and UK New Car Registrations

– New York Fed President John Williams speaks

U.S. retail sales/University of Michigan indicator/inflation predictions

Graphic: MSCI Europe net earnings revisions – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/akpezamnevr/European%20earnings%20revisions.PNG