By Karin Strohecker

LONDON (Reuters] – The inaccessibility of vaccines has hampered economic recovery across sub-Saharan Africa, and it will be years before developed nations catch up.

Fund confirms its sub-Saharan Africa forecast for growth of 3.7% in this year, and 3.8% by 2022, according to its regional economic outlook. The fund stated that while some countries have benefited from rising commodity prices, and favourable harvests, overall the picture was bleak.

Shushanik Hakobyan’s IMF report stated that the outlook is “extremely uncertain”, and the risks were tilted toward the downside. It also added much was dependent on the course of the pandemic, vaccinations, as well as disruptions in financial markets and global activity, which could derail recovery.

Sub-Saharan Africa has the 2021 growth rate projections that indicate it already experienced the slowest recovery.

South Africa, the most industrialized nation on the continent, is set to grow by 5.0% in 2019, before slowing to 2.2% growth in 2022. According to the report, Nigeria’s growth will be 2.6% due to rising oil prices. However rates are expected to remain the same for the near future.

Angola’s economic growth will shrink by 0.7% between 2021 and 2021. But, after six years of recession, it will rebound to 2.4% next year. The slowdown in investment, technical issues in the oil sector, as well as falling investments, will cause Angola to experience a contraction in its economy.

The fund discovered that rising food inflation will continue to be a major problem, particularly for those 30 million who have been displaced by the pandemic. The food inflation rate has been steadily rising since 2019, reaching 10.9% in August for 25 of the countries with monthly data.

According to the report’s authors, “The crisis has increased inequality not only among income groups but also between subnational geographical areas, which could add to the risk for social tensions and political instability.”

Without external technical and financial assistance, divergent recovery pathways of sub-Saharan Africa may become permanent fault lines and jeopardize decades of hard-won progress.