Hyonhee Shin

SEOUL (Reuters) – When South Korean President Moon Jae-in arrived this week at Seoul’s largest weapons expo ever https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/arriving-fighter-jet-skoreas-moon-urges-defence-industry-growth-2021-10-20 in the back seat of a fighter jet, he didn’t present the image of a leader bent on making peace with North Korea.

Under Moon, South Korea has not only continued many of the military programmes approved under his conservative predecessors, but pushed already large defence budgets to new highs, negotiated an end to U.S. restrictions on its missile programme, and announced plans for the nation’s first aircraft carrier, among a plethora of other advanced weapons https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/skorea-successfully-tests-submarine-launched-ballistic-missile-blue-house-2021-09-15.

Whatever the outcome of Moon’s last-ditch efforts to a achieve a breakthrough with North Korea https://www.reuters.com/world/china/exclusive-north-south-korea-talks-over-summit-reopening-liaison-office-sources-2021-07-28 before he leaves office in May, that military buildup appears a lasting legacy.

This seems to be at odds with President Obama’s liberal drive for inter-Korean Peace. Pyongyang has also cited Seoul’s arms buildup in Washington as an example hostile duplicity.

According to analysts and officials, Moon believed that his main motivation was to gain more autonomy in South Korea and to eventually take operational control of all allied forces in wartime.

According to a diplomatic source, Seoul, “When the F-35 fighter aircrafts of the United States government were revealed in 2019, I was puzzled as to why,” the Seoul diplomat said. But I realized that they follow Moon’s self-reliant defense concept.

The 1950-53 Korean War ended in an armistice, not a peace agreement. Since then, the U.S. military maintains control over thousands of South Korean troops and the approximately 28,500 American soldiers.

Moon made obtaining control of the joint forces a major goal, but a delayed review https://www.reuters.com/article/southkorea-usa-military-idINKBN2AZ020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues has made it impossible in what is left of his term.

Moon seems to be determined to lay the foundation for future transfers through military buildup regardless of who succeeds him,” a source told me. The source spoke anonymously due to diplomatic sensitivety.

Officials claim that his desire to increase military power is influenced also by factors such as genuine concerns about North Korea’s threats growing.

It also drove new business for South Korea’s military contractors. This helped Moon blunt critics who suggested that Moon’s outreach to North Korea could endanger both the South and U.S. allies.

Peace and Strength

Moon said that having a strong army is an essential part of peace negotiations with North Korea. He believes it’s possible to do so from a place of strength and less reliance on America.

According to the official, who spoke under anonymity as the topic is sensitive, “Moon’s push offers important indications that South Korea now wants to be the leader in the establishment of peace on the Peninsula on its own and not through allied forces.”

Source added that “As we encourage strength-based peaceful, this government will not give up on cross border ties,” “They are determined to bring North to the table and will raise the matter of ending war to that end.

Moon called for declaring a formal end to the war https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korean-leader-repeats-call-declaration-end-korean-war-2021-09-21 in his speech to the U.N. General Assembly last month, saying it would help reopen stalled talks aimed at denuclearising North Korea in return for U.S. sanctions relief.

The North has been testing a variety of short-range missiles in recent years. Analysts believe they are intended to bypass South Korea’s defenses. It has matched several moves by Seoul, including holding a duelling arms show https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-threatens-upstage-skorea-defence-expo-with-duelling-military-show-2021-10-14 and launching a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nkorea-says-it-conducted-successful-missile-test-submarine-kcna-2021-10-19 just weeks after South Korea had conducted its own SLBM test https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/nkorea-fired-unidentified-projectile-yonhap-citing-skorea-military-2021-09-15.

Pyongyang has repeatedly complained about South Korea’s weapons acquisitions and joint drills with the Americans, accusing Seoul of applying double standards https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-says-suggestion-declare-end-korean-war-is-premature-kcna-2021-09-23 over military development while destabilising the peninsula with its own buildup.

Seoul officials stated that Pyongyang also showed willingness to ignore or minimize the South’s military actions when necessary.

According to the source, “There wasn’t a lot of backlash. But South Korean weapons weren’t welcome in the North. I believe it was their strategy to pretend that they were a normal state to legitimize their own weapon development.” But the arms race is heading in dangerous directions, without any arms control mechanisms nor confidence-building measures between either side.