By Crispian Balmer

ROME (Reuters – The first signs of improvement in climate negotiations next month in Glasgow may be evident this weekend, when the leaders of 20 of the most powerful economies in the world meet for the first time in nearly two years.

The road ahead is obstructed by many big obstacles. G20 members are divided on questions like phasing in coal or limiting global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.75 degrees Fahrenheit). Diplomats don’t have much time to come to an agreement before October 30-31.

Many leaders, including the U.S. president Joe Biden will be flying to Scotland immediately after arriving in Rome for the United Nations’ climate summit (COP26), which is vital to addressing the rising temperature threat.

COP26 brings together almost 200 countries. However, the G20 bloc which includes Brazil China India Germany Germany and India is the largest force. They account for more than 80%, 60% and 80% respectively of the global gross domestic product.

The time is over for diplomacy. “If governments, particularly G20, don’t stand up to lead this effort we are heading for terrible human suffering,” U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated last week.

Biden has lost hope of receiving a solid G20 response. His expectations to go to Europe with strong climate policies have been greatly diminished by political differences over a larger spending package.

The hosts Italy are disappointed that the Chinese, Japan, Mexico and Saudi Arabia leaders have refused to participate in the meeting. It will take place at EUR, a suburb of Rome built by Benito Mussolini, the fascist dictator.

According to diplomats, the Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reportedly pulled out due to concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic. However, they are likely to continue the discussion via a video link.

PANDEMIC

COVID-19 means last year’s G20 Summit was an event. Continued fallout from the recent health crisis will play a prominent role in the Rome talks. Italy is keen to see major economies coordinate the global recovery.

Expectations for rising fuel prices and stretched supply chains will be addressed. Reform of the World Trade Organization (WTO) is also needed.

G20 leaders also agreed to a global minimum tax rate of 15% on big businesses – this deal was reached earlier in the month, and which Italy has called a significant achievement during its long G20 presidency.

It also said that it was proud of the May summit which resulted from pledges by rich countries for millions of COVID-19 vaccination doses to poorer areas, and a deal to redirect International Monetary Fund emergency funds to less fortunate countries.

Given the current international environment, I believe Italy is able to be content with its G20 presidency. However, we hope that further deals can be made on decarbonisation,” stated Antonio Villafranca (director of studies at The Italian Institute of International Policy Studies).

Mario Draghi is trying to achieve consensus on one area: a promise to reduce methane emissions 30% by 2030, compared with 2020 levels. It’s another aspect of the battle against global warming.

The most difficult negotiation will be the one in which rich countries must honor a 2009 promise to give $100 billion annually to poor nations to adapt to climate change.

Although they had agreed to continue this goal until 2025 in 2015, some activists from climate change and countries poor have criticized it as not being enough.

The futurist convention center ‘The Cloud’ will host the talks. Social events are scheduled at historic Rome sites, such as a gala dinner at the palace of the president.

Interior ministry officials have stated that between 5,000 to 6,000 police and around 500 soldiers would be deployed for security. To keep out potential troublemakers, airspace over Rome will be shut down and border control will be increased.