By Elaine Lies

TOKYO, Reuters – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and Fumio Kirishida, the prime minister of Japan are now on alert as the weekend’s lower House election nears. The ruling party is likely to suffer a beating but the coalition government should be safe.

LDP’s image has been damaged by mishandling coronavirus pandemic. On Friday, opinion polls showed that it could prove difficult to keep its one-party majority at the lower house.

Kishida became prime minister earlier this month and governed for a bit over a week before dissolving the chamber, hoping to catch the opposition on the back foot with an earlier-than-expected poll and take advantage of the “honeymoon” period usually granted to new governments.

But some analysts believe the move may backfire for Kishida, whose bland image has failed to inspire voters, and say he risks being replaced https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/why-japans-election-is-bigger-deal-than-it-looks-2021-10-28 if there a substantial loss of seats for the LDP with an upper house election looming next year.

Atsuo Ito, a political commentator said that “Recently, elections have been about personalities. A certain ‘face.’ But right now, neither coalition nor opposition has that.”

He said that elections such as this can be a judgment on the government in power. However, Kishida’s government was only in place for about 10 days, and that you cannot vote on it.

“I believe that a lot voters are confused and that the turnout will drop.”

The importance of turnout is critical. Large numbers tend to favor the opposition. But polls indicate that turnout might be just slightly higher than 52.66%, which was the record for 2014, postwar.

At 54%, the 2017 lower house elections saw the second-lowest postwar turnout. Youth turnout was particularly low, with only three out of every 10 people in the 20-24 age bracket casting votes, a situation activists and others are trying to change https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-efforts-afoot-win-hearts-votes-alienated-young-2021-10-28.

Kishida set a coalition goal for a majority of 233 seats in lower chamber’s 465-seat lower chamber. This is well below 276 seats that were held by LDP before lower house was dissolution.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, and the LDP published polls Friday that showed the LDP could struggle to hold the 233 seats. However, Komeito is the junior coalition partner which should allow the coalition to maintain a majority.

Japan’s opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (Nikkei) is expected to win additional seats. The Nikkei estimated that about 40% of the races within single seat districts would be in close contest.

LDP is finding it harder to win seats because of an alliance with opposition parties, Ito, among others, said.

Airo Hino from Tokyo’s Waseda University said that “in districts where the opposition cooperates, the LDP fights pretty hard.”

“They are neck-and-neck within a few of the single-seat areas.”