James Oliphant

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – Republican Glenn Youngkin’s surprise victory in Virginia’s governor race will likely energize Republicans before next year’s critical midterm elections when control over Congress could be on the line.

Youngkin’s victory over Terry McAuliffe may be a template for Republican candidate in 2022. Democrats will now have to worry about President Joe Biden’s waning approval ratings and stalled agenda.

Here are some takeaways from Youngkin’s victory:

Biden’s struggles are mirrored in his party

Biden and his Democrats had an awful year. Continued spread of COVID-19 resistance and other forms of vaccine inequalities continue. Many people viewed the military withdrawal from Afghanistan as chaotic and poorly managed.

He has been unable to unite Democratic moderates and progressives in support of his large-ticket legislative agenda. At the same time, prices for consumer goods, food and fuel have shot up – with voters largely blaming the party in power.

Simply put, Biden hasn’t given voters – particularly those outside the Democratic base – much to feel good about.

Youngkin capitalized on those troubles, running up the score in rural Virginia and squeezing McAuliffe’s margins in some critical suburban areas.

According to exit polls by CNN, Biden was victorious over Youngkin in 2020. Youngkin won 54% to 38% and Biden 57% to 38% respectively. The polls revealed that a narrow majority of voters thought the Democratic Party was too liberal.

McAuliffe is a former governor who brought with him his history and baggage. He was a prominent figure in Virginia, with close ties to Bill Clinton. However, he didn’t offer the voters the fresh perspective that Youngkin could.

However, McAuliffe’s losses and those of other Democrats on the down ballot in states Biden won 10 percent a year back, along with an unexpectedly close New Jersey governor’s election made it clear that Democrats now have a less powerful political platform.

A Republican pollster, Bill McInturff said that signs are showing substantial Republican gains to Congress in the next year.

“Every survey number we are seeing paints a bleak picture for President Biden and Democrats in Congress,” McInturff said.

Education is at the center of culture wars.

Youngkin’s focus on education helped him gain momentum. This strategy is likely to be copied by Republicans next year, as the schools are now ground zero in several U.S. cultural wars.

The Republican seized on tensions between parents and school boards over policies for COVID school closures and safety protocols, gender issues and the teaching of so-called “critical race theory” – a term misused to describe antiracism curricula that Youngkin claimed was evidence that school districts were drifting too far leftward.

McAuliffe may have made the largest mistake of the campaign when, at a debate, he said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The remarks soon became a centerpiece of Youngkin attack ads – and the issue as a whole may have resonated with scores of suburban parents frustrated after seeing their children kept at home for more than a full school year during the pandemic.

Voters who believed parents should have “a lot” of say over what schools teach went for Youngkin 76% to 23%, according to CNN exit polls. CNN found that McAuliffe was preferred by 83% and Youngkin only 17% of those who cited the virus as their greatest concern.

“Youngkin’s massive overperformance was tied to the issues of schools – and an uprising from parents, who became overnight homeschoolers,” said Doug Heye, who worked as a top aide to Eric Cantor, a former Republican congressman from Virginia.

Republicans can take a non-Trump route

Youngkin showed skill in keeping his distance with Trump, despite the fact that he continues to be a long-standing shadow over the Republican Party.

Former CEO of The Carlyle Group Youngkin was not a Trump acolyte but a businessman outsider candidate. He largely steered clear of endorsing Trump’s bogus claims that he lost last year’s elections due to fraud, while still supporting the principle of “voter integrity.” Unlike Trump, Youngkin was a full-throated advocate of vaccines, even as he opposed mandates.

Trump supported Youngkin multiple times. However, Youngkin refused to embrace him to the extent that Trump did not visit the state in order to run for office.

Youngkin “is providing a model” for Republicans, said Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman from Virginia. “He has separated himself pretty well.”

McAuliffe spent most of his campaign trying tie Youngkin to Trump. It didn’t work. Exit polls from NBC found that Youngkin was viewed more favourably by voters than Trump, who continues to be unpopular.

Trump was also aware of the situation. McAuliffe only talked Trump, Trump. Trump lost. “I guess people running for office as Democrats won’t be doing that too much longer.”