(Bloomberg) — President Joe Biden returned to the U.S. from summits in Europe with his economic agenda still stuck in Congress and his party’s political fortunes darkened by an electoral defeat in Virginia. 

The two bills comprising his agenda, a $550 billion Senate-passed public works measure and a larger package of tax and spending policies he calls “Build Back Better,” are stalled while Democrats hammer out details on health care, immigration, taxes and other issues.

In Virginia, however, the voters voted against President Trump and his party to elect Glenn Youngkin, a Republican governor, in a state that Biden won with 10 points. In New Jersey, the outcome of Governor Phil Murphy’s re-election fight against a Republican challenger was too close to call, despite a big lead in polls for the Democratic incumbent and close Biden ally as recently as September.

The results suggest public dissatisfaction with the trajectory of the country and with Biden’s presidency. The economy has slowed due to persistent coronavirus transmission, defying the president’s pledge to contain the pandemic, while he has been unable to secure passage of his own legislative agenda. 

According to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis of polls, his approval rating dropped to 43%.

Biden declared before boarding Air Force One for Rome last week that he’d reached a deal on his agenda, calling it a “historic economic framework.” But in the days since, it’s become clear that his party remains divided over the multi-trillion-dollar plan.

‘Back on Track’

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a key centrist, on Monday suggested he might not support the legislation, before saying Tuesday that “we’ll get this back on track.”

“I believe Joe will be there,” Biden said of Manchin in a news conference at a United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, on Tuesday. “I think we’ll get this done.”

Incorrectly, the president predicted that Terry McAuliffe (Democratic nominee for Virginia Governor) would win Youngkin’s election.

Biden has made clear to Democrats that passing the two bills comprising his economic agenda are vital to the party’s political prospects in 2022 and beyond. Congressional Democrats have been sparring for months over details of “Build Back Better,” with liberals pushing for more spending and tax increases as centrists try to pare back the measure.

Modest voters may feel that the election results will favor them. They have complained about how progressives within their party want to move the country farther left than the majority of voters would prefer.

Virginia Democrats pleaded with Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to at least clear the infrastructure measure for the president’s signature ahead of the election, warning that the squabbling suggested to voters their party can’t govern. A vote was stopped by Liberals in Congress.

Before leaving for Europe on Thursday, the President described the negotiations as nearly over. “No one got everything they wanted, including me, but that’s what compromise is,” he said after revealing his “framework” for the legislation.

Continued Negotiations

The negotiations continued for five more days as Biden met with leaders from around the world in Rome and Scotland to discuss crises such as climate change, supply-chain disruptions and other issues. “I can’t think of any two days where more has been accomplished dealing with climate,” Biden said Tuesday, after announcing plans to reduce U.S. methane emissions and increase reforestation at the summit.

Recently, Democrats debated including a clause in legislation that would reduce the price of prescription drugs, review paid family leave (a program which was removed from the package last Wednesday), and remove a limit on federal income taxes for state- and local tax payments.

Democrats tend to be particularly fussy about the SALT tax debate. Leading progressive senator Bernie Sanders stated Tuesday that he will oppose the five-year removal of the cap — an idea from centrists living in high-tax states. 

Sanders called their plan “beyond unacceptable,” labeling it “more tax breaks to the very rich.”

And the timetable for action on Biden’s domestic agenda is again slipping. Congressional leaders and some liberals had hoped for votes this week, but Manchin said that he isn’t in a hurry.

‘Get It Done’

“It is really critical that we get it done, and I don’t like these deadlines. Let’s just get it done when it gets done before the end of the year,” said Democratic Senator Mazie Hirono of Hawaii.

Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, said that if liberal House Democrats had agreed in September to clear the $550 billion Senate-passed infrastructure legislation, the “Build Back Better” plan would probably already be law as well.

“And we’d be in a better place in Virginia,” he said. “Clearly showing we can make progress would have been nice.”

It is not clear whether Manchin or the other Senate holdout on “Build Back Better,” Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, support Biden’s framework.

Manchin said Tuesday that he only received the most recent draft of Climate Provisions for Build Back better and hadn’t seen details about a proposal to lower prescription drug prices. Manchin said he is “looking at everything” before adding, “it’s going to be a while.”

Expect a delayed arrival 

The legislative chaos loomed heavy over the president’s Europe trip from the start, with Biden’s ill-fated visit to Capitol Hill on Thursday to announce his “framework” agreement pushing back what had been planned as an early morning departure from Washington past noon. As a result, the president didn’t arrive at Villa Taverna, the fifteenth-century ambassador’s residence where he was staying in Rome, until after 2:30 a.m. on Friday morning. 

The rest was hard work. The G-20 communique’s climate provisions were discussed late at night by leaders and diplomats in Rome. However, they produced a watered down declaration which echoed the previous commitments but did not include the push for domestic coal that some European countries wanted. Biden tried to make a similar provision that would require nations to stop financing other countries’ coal projects as a breakthrough. However, there were questions over whether he had failed to protect his domestic agenda prior to departing.

While the president acknowledged and attempted to downplay his credibility gap, he frequently seemed to emphasize it.

He acknowledged world leaders’ skepticism about the ability of the U.S. to follow through on its commitments, and said his “administration is working overtime to show that our climate commitment is action, not words.”

He predicted his economic agenda would pass before the end of the week, only to concede skeptics “may turn out to be right.” 

Generic Enthusiasm

When asked by reporters whether he secured the commitment of Sinema or Manchin to vote in favor of the bill, he gave a thumbs up. The White House responded with a statement stating that he is simply enthusiastic about its prospects. 

The jet lag set in after a flight early in the morning from Rome to Glasgow. Biden’s eyes closed during introductory remarks at the climate summit for 32 seconds, until an aide ran to his seat to get his attention — earning derisive coverage in Scotland and a mocking rebuke from former President Donald Trump.

He was greeted warmly by foreign leaders, a stark contrast to his predecessor. He and French President Emmanuel Macron quashed a spat over Australia’s decision to spurn Paris for a nuclear submarine deal with the U.S. and U.K., and a tariff deal on steel and offered a major trade victory that addressed not only climate concerns but rising inflation back at home.

Also, the president clearly felt moved by Pope Francis’ extended visit. He spoke of his intimate relationship with the Catholic leader.

Biden did admit to reporters, however that his focus was on legislative and other domestic battles.

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