Josh Smith

SEOUL (Reuters). – North Korea has the ability to get the uranium that it requires for nuclear weapons via its Pyongsan plant. New academic research concludes that satellite imagery shows the possibility of North Korea producing far more nuclear fuel.

Despite a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons tests since 2017, North Korea has said it is continuing to build its arsenal, and this year it appeared to have restarted https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-appears-have-restarted-nuclear-reactor-iaea-says-2021-08-29 a reactor that is widely believed to have produced weapons-grade plutonium.

According to research published last month in the journal Science & Global Security by researchers at Stanford University and an Arizona-based mining consulting company, North Korea may be able to increase production, and has no need for other uranium mills.

The report used the initials of North Korea’s official title, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, to state that “It appears that the DPRK seems to have substantially greater milling capacity than what it has been using up to now.” This means the DPRK may be able to produce more milled natural radioactive uranium, if needed.

Analysts believe that the Pyongsan Concentration Plant (and its associated mine) are North Korea’s sole publicly recognized source of yellowcake or uraniumore.

This report is coming as satellite imagery also shows North Korea expanding its Yongbyon nuclear power plant. Analysts believe this expansion could be used for weapons-grade uranium production.

“Given the DPRK’s active nuclear program, it is of utmost importance to assess and understand its nuclear materials production capabilities,” wrote the report’s authors, who submitted their findings in April.

The report stated that these capabilities determine North Korea’s potential growth rate in its nuclear arsenal and assess the risk of nuclear disarmament. They also measure North Korea’s future ability to generate nuclear energy.

DESCRIPTION OF NUCLEAR ARSENAL GROWING

The question over how many nuclear weapons North Korea possesses is a key issue for intelligence agencies in South Korea and the United States, as well as for any talks aimed at limiting or reducing North Korea’s arsenal.

North Korea wants Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons to be surrendered. The United States has stated that it is willing to meet with North Korea, but without any conditions. North Korea insists that negotiations are possible only if the United States and its allies cease to be hostile.

Although intelligence on North Korean nukes is scarce, David Albright (president of the Institute for Science and International Security) told Reuters that he believes the country can produce four to six warheads per year.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in September https://www.reuters.com/article/northkorea-nuclear-iaea-idINV9N2IE02B that North Korea’s “nuclear programme goes full steam ahead with work on plutonium separation, uranium enrichment and other activities.”

The academic report stated that there has been no evidence of any outsiders accessing the Pyongsan Uranium Mine after 1992 IAEA visits. Details of the mill are still unclear.

To analyse satellite imagery to determine land use patterns surrounding the Pyongsan facility, Orbital Insight developed artificial intelligence algorithms.

The mine’s yellowcake is an important component of North Korea’s nuclear fuel production. It also includes its 5-megawatt reactor (MW), which can produce weapons-grade plutonium.

According to the IAEA, and other analysts, the reactor was operating in 2018 for the first-time since 2018.