Lefteris Papadimas, George Georgiopoulos

NEA IRAKLEIA in Greece (Reuters). George Perperis walks along the coastline of Nea Irakleia, Greece, and points out where a once-pristine beach was. Now, it is submerged under seawater.

Perperis, who is 59, says that there was once a beach measuring 20 meters in width. It has now disappeared completely. Family members would swim here and fishermen would fish from the shore.

Climate change is accelerating coastal erosion, which poses a serious threat to Nea Irakleia (western Halkidiki), a peninsula with lush forests and golden sandy sands that depends on tourism.

This region was one that suffered the most from the financial crisis in Greece between 2010 and 2018. It saw the economy shrink by 25%, forcing many to become poor.

The impact of increasing temperatures and freak weather on tourism and agriculture, as well as the accelerating coast erosion could further threaten the financial health of Europe’s largest country.

The crisis years were very difficult. Many stores shut down and the tourism industry declined. Perperis is a former mechanic who was also a leader in the local community.

But climate change may be more dangerous. “What will a tourist do if there’s no beach?”

Experts believe that the coastal erosion has increased at Halkidiki in recent years, which is home to about 10% of Greece’s 30 million annual visitors.

Two years ago, a Thessaloniki observatory was established to monitor the phenomena using sea floats, satellite photos and algorithms. Authorities have identified 18 areas in the area that are “red points”, which indicate extreme coastal vulnerability.

Costas Gioutikas is the vice-prefect for environment and central Macedonia. We see the beaches disappear.”

MEETING THE COOST

Prior to the outbreak, about half of Greece’s GDP was accounted for by tourism. It also provided a comparable number of jobs and earned revenue of around 18 billion euros.

Experts say that climate change’s challenges, such as extreme weather, flooding beaches and scorching summers, could be a serious hindrance to Greece’s ability to grow.

The most recent research by Greece’s Central Bank, which was done in 2009, revealed that the economic cost of climate change in Greece to the economy reached 700 billion euros in 2100. This represents a drop in GDP each year by 2%. The Central Bank stated that adaptation could decrease the cost by 30% and mitigate policies by 30%. In a few weeks, an updated report will be available.

Greece’s public debt is estimated to be 196.6% GDP. This makes it one of the most indebted economies in the euro area. Therefore, the government must ensure that Greece can continue growth and repay its loans.

Stavros Zenios is a professor at University of Cyprus. He also serves as a nonresident fellow at think-tank Bruegel. For countries such as Greece, the projected GDP growth rate may drop to one third by the end century from what it was today.

Yannis Stournaras (Greek Central Bank Governor) told Reuters the country’s finances are manageable.

The interest payments for its debt mountain – which is refinanced at very low rates, around 1.5% – translate into less than 3% annually of the national production. Stournaras stated that growth rates must exceed borrowing costs in order to limit the debt.

But, as world leaders meet in Glasgow for the COP26 global climate conference https://www.reuters.com/business/cop, he said he worried that not enough was being done to tackle the most damaging effects of global warming.

Stournaras said, “It isn’t just theory. I think it is an academic problem. But, it’s with us right now. And I fear the world isn’t doing enough.” “The future is far away that no one believes we can take immediate action to fix what will most likely appear in 50 years.”

FREAKING WEATHER, SCORCHING THE DAYS

This summer Greece has already seen a glimpse of what a warmer future may bring, with thousands of hectares of forest burning for days in wildfires https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/after-wildfires-greek-pm-says-climate-crisis-demands-radical-action-2021-08-25 that tore through the outskirts of Athens and other areas.

The University of Athens has created a hypothetical scenario in which temperatures will increase 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2046-2065. This is compared to 1971-2000. It was developed by a team from the University of Athens. They predict that there will be 15-20 heatwave-related days per year, with rainfall decreasing by 10-30%.

Scientists predict that the sea level could rise 20-50 cm (8-20 inches) over the same time period. The 16,000km (1,940-mile) of Greece’s coastline could be at risk. One-third of Greece’s population lives within 2 km of the coast. 90% of Greece’s tourist infrastructure is located on the coast.   

More extreme weather is also on the horizon.

At least seven people died and nearly 100 were injured in a powerful, brief-lived supercell storm on July 11th 2019. It swept through an area just outside NeaIrakleia.

Christos Zerfos, professor at Athens Academy of Sciences and climate expert said “Ofcourse it’s all related to the disturbances in the climate.” If nothing is done in order to stabilize the climate, such phenomena will continue and grow over the coming years.”