Katharine Timeeld

NAIROBI, Reuters – Rebellious Tigray forces have moved within a day of Addis Ababa capital. They are now threatening to march against the city of five million.

However, the denouement of the one-year-long conflict could be much longer.

For the Tigray People’s Liberation Front to get to Addis, they would need to cross hostile terrain in Amhara.

The opposition could come from Ethiopians as well, who are afraid of the return to power a party which ruled central government with iron might for almost three decades before Prime Minister Abiy Mohamed took office.

Oromiya (the region surrounding Addis Ababa) is split. After years of protests against the government, Abiy was able to rise to power thanks in large part to Oromo support.

Some of his support was lost when thousands of Oromos were detained by security forces. Others accused him of failing to do enough for their community. The aftermath of the deadly riots, which claimed hundreds lives, saw several Oromo leaders also being detained.

Since then, the TPLF formed an alliance with Oromo Liberation Army. OLA is fighting the central government. Both groups claimed this week that they had taken strategic Amharan towns and are considering moving on Addis Ababa.

On Friday, OLA and the TPLF were scheduled to join forces in Washington with seven rebel groups.

Billene Seyoum was the spokeswoman of the prime minister. She stated that it could not be relied upon to deliver democracy.

She tweeted that “The openness of the political space was three years ago and provided ample opportunities for candidates to settle their differences at June 2021’s ballot box.”

On condition of anonymity regional diplomats said that the threat to march on Addis might be used to pressure Abiy to negotiate or step down. Getachew Reda (TPLF spokesman) has not responded to inquiries for comment. He stated that there must be an interim government, and Abiy should go on trial.

Ethiopian officials accuse Tigrayan troops of exaggerating their territorial gains. Calls to the government or military for comment about the threats from both sides were not returned by spokespersons.

Tigrayan forces might instead attempt to put more pressure on Abiy by cutting the country’s main port from the region. The Oromo-allied Tigrayan forces could enter the capital together or with their Oromo allies.

Oda Tarbii (OLA spokesperson) stated that the OLA will spearhead the operation. “This land is not ours and falls within our authority.”

HOSTILITY IN CAPITAL

Conflict in Tigray, once an ally of the West in volatile regions, has resulted in thousands of deaths, 400,000 Tigrayans being forced into hunger, and more than 2.5million fleeing their homes.

Abiy deployed troops to Tigray in November last year, accusing the governing party of staging surprise attacks against military bases. The TPLF claimed that the military had been planning to strike the area after an election was held there in September 2020, in contravention of federal orders.

Amhara is Ethiopia’s second-most populous region. It mobilized to support Abiy’s government. Amhara and Tigray are involved in a lengthy border dispute. Amhara seized control of Tigray’s west. The Oromo–Amhara border has seen violence.

William Davison is a Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group. He said that there might be severe backlash in the event Oromo and Tigrayan forces take the capital.

If the Tigray and OLA forces in Addis Ababa take control of Amhara, “Amhara could rebel.” He stated that Amharas don’t only resent the TPLF, OLA and federal leaders who left Amhara out,” he added.

The fight for entry into the capital, home of the African Union Headquarters and many other international delegations, could prove bloody.

Addis Ababa has been a hotbed of opposition to TPLF rule since the party oversaw a crackdown https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSL26284307 that netted 30,000 people following elections in 2005.

I don’t believe TPLF will reach Addis Ababa. Teferi Mekonnen (30 years old) said that she is not afraid. If the government hands me a gun and tells me to fight it, then I will. They will not return them.”

Abiy may also ask Eritrea to help. Eritrean soldiers entered Tigray to aid Ethiopian soldiers in November. They mostly left in June following a torrent of news reports about mass murders, gang rapes, and civilian deaths. Eritrea denied any wrongdoing.

There are increasing calls from international partners to a ceasefire.

There is not much evidence that either side would like to have talks. However, a handful of Ethiopians are beginning to call for peace.

Davison stated that Abiy’s authority had remained unaffected so far. But, given the immense pressure it’s possible for the floodgates to open (of discontent),