AMC’s profitability hangs on the domestic box office topping $2 billion in Q4
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AMC Theatre is seen in Times Square, New York City’s Manhattan borough, New York City on June 2, 2021.
Carlo Allegri | Reuters
AMC Entertainment has set a new, more attainable target for the 2021 domestic box office in its bid for a profitable fourth quarter.
On Monday, the chain of movie theatres stated that $2 billion would be achieved if box-office gross from October to November and December. it would be able to post positive cash flow in the fourth quarter.
The previous target it had predicted for August was for the full-year domestic box office to reach at least $5.2 billion
Analysts have varying opinions on whether a domestic box office of $2 billion in the fourth quarter can be achieved. Some say it’s possible, while others are more cautious.
Wedbush analyst Alicia Reese stated that domestic box office in Q4 could exceed $2 billion. AMC is expected to achieve positive EBITDA for Q4, based on these assumptions, and AMC’s proven expense management.
According to Comscore data, the 4th quarter outlook of $2 billion assumes that box office revenues will be around 75% higher than what was collected in the previous period in 2019. This is approximately $2.9 billion.
Eric Handler, MKM Partners, stated that the film slate for this year is difficult to compare with films from two years ago. These films included “Joker,” Frozen II,” Jumanji: The Next Level,” and “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”. All of these movies generated strong domestic box-office returns.
Analysts at the box office predict that the last ticket sales will be between $4.7 billion and $4 billion in the remaining seven weeks.
The box office had been fairly predictable before the pandemic based upon decades of data. With variable release strategies, changes in safety precautions and constant caution from certain demographics it has been difficult to forecast how each film will perform.
According to Comscore data, domestic box office revenues reached $2.4 billion in the first three quarters. With October’s box office haul, and November’s first week, $3.2 Billion is the total year-to-date. AMC needs to surpass $4.4 billion in box office revenue for the entire year to meet its goal.
Paul Dergarabedian is a senior media analyst with Comscore. He stated, “While October was the strongest month of the pandemic in North America, and provides a strong tailwind to the last two months in theaters,”.
AMC’s dependence on unpredictable box offices is probably why it has sought out other revenue sources. AMC is also looking for new entertainment venues and new content like live sports or pretaped performances. will expand into the popcorn retail businessShe is interested in ventures into NFTs, cryptocurrency and credit cards.
Gucci, Ghosts, and Generation Gaps
AMC is on track to reach its $2 billion goal, thanks to strong October ticket sales. The month is still in its final days. generated $637.3 million, from films such as “Halloween Kills,” “Venom: Let There Be Carnage” and “No Time to Die,”$1.36 Billion would still need to be delivered by November or December.
Box-office analysts predict that November will see a lower haul than October, mainly because it features fewer blockbuster films and has more Oscar-bait movies. These types of films typically have smaller returns.
Disney’sLatest Marvel movie “Eternals,” garnered $71 million during its domestic debut over the weekend,However, analysts predict that it will experience a dramatic drop in ticket sales its second week. This is due to weak reviews and bad word-of-mouth.
Next week Sony’sThe theatrical release of “Ghostbusters Afterlife”, is exclusive to theaters. While the prospect of seeing familiar faces from classic ’80s films may appeal to older audiences, it remains unclear whether younger moviegoers will be drawn in. The movie currently has an estimated opening weekend of $45 million to $65 million.
The releases of “King Richard” (and “House of Gucci”) are attracting attention before their release later in the month. However, their content is more suited for mature audiences and has taken longer to get to the theaters. Analysts don’t believe they will be able to drive ticket sales. Each film is biographical. One focuses on Serena Williams’ father, who was also a coach for Venus, while the other focuses on Patrizia Reggiani and her marriage to the Gucci family, which has deadly results.
December also sees the debut of Disney’s new animated feature “Encanto.” This film may have a strong opening, considering that children now have access to Covid vaccines. Coronavirus fears have made it difficult for other children’s material to gain audiences. It is possible that vaccines for children are available in December, which could bode well to the December release. Universal’s“Sing 2”
How important is ‘Spider-Man?
It is possible that December will do better than November with the release of “Spider-Man: no Way Home” and other films. However, the film’s Dec. 17 release will mean that 2021’s box office won’t be affected by its ticket sales for two weeks.
Analysts predict that the film will bring in around $100million for its debut. If it experiences a second week drop like other Marvel films it is likely to bring in under $200 million before Dec. 31.
Tom Holland plays Peter Parker in Marvel’s “Spider-Man: There’s No Way Home”.
Disney
The box office for “West Side Story,” which is based on the musical by Leonard Bernstein and Stephen Sondheim, will be similar to that of “King Richard” or “House of Gucci.” The film, which is based on Stephen Sondheim’s musical, will primarily appeal to older viewers.
It will also rely on nostalgia as well as the general affection for Keanu Reeves, actor of “The Matrix Resurrections”. This feature will be also available online, so it’s not clear if young audiences will enjoy it. HBO MaxThe same day.
Dergarabedian said, “Indeed it is hot for all the titles to perform at their highest potential for the holiday season.”
Disclosure: Comcast, the parent company for NBCUniversal & CNBC is Comcast.
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