Gram Slattery

SANTIAGO (Reuters – Plaza Baquedano is a large rotary located in the center of Santiago and has for years been a place of protest. It’s a strong symbol of hope.

For two years, city residents have regularly gathered here https://graphics.reuters.com/CHILE-PROTESTS/0100B32527X/index.html to protest pensions that are too low, public transit fees that are too high and, more generally, an old-guard political class that just does not get it.

The statue of a nineteenth-century general that sat at the plaza’s center has been removed https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-protests-idUSKBN2B3255, and its plinth is now covered in left-wing political literature.

Most credit the protests – known collectively as the “estallido social” or “social outbreak” – for bringing about an ongoing rewrite of the nation’s Pinochet-era constitution https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-begins-down-uncertain-road-writing-new-constitution-2021-05-17. The “estallido” has also helped propel the candidacy of 35-year-old leftist Gabriel Boric, a relative newcomer who has become a serious contender in this Sunday’s presidential election https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/former-protest-leader-boric-seeks-bury-chiles-neoliberal-past-2021-11-17.

Not everyone can be so hooked.

Ramon Zambrano (a neighboring doorman) is among the critics.

Protests can be peaceful but not violently. They are making a big mess by burning cars, and burning the metro. “What are they doing?” He continues to ask, while also pointing out damage caused by graffiti on the building where he works.

Plaza Baquedano is, in some ways, the paradox central to the election. The Left in Chile gained considerable traction through the dozens and sometimes violent marches that started in 2019. However, many voters are now wary.

The Right has an opportunity to make a strong law-and order message in Chile thanks to this perception.

While Boric, who rose to fame heading student protests in 2011, had been leading for most of 2021, José Antonio Kast, an ultra-right-wing former congressman who draws comparisons to Donald Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chiles-bolsonaro-hard-right-kast-rises-with-frank-talk-crime-focus-2021-11-16, has risen in the polls dramatically in recent weeks.

Recent polls indicate that Kast has the highest vote share, with Kast winning by a narrow margin on Sunday. A Nov. 6 survey by consultancy Activa Research has Kast narrowly winning a likely runoff https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chile-conservative-kast-maintains-lead-final-pre-election-opinion-polls-2021-11-06 in December.

BURNED OUT

Kenneth Bunker is the director of Tresquintos political consulting. A particularly violent round in late October was a boon for the Right.

A series https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chile-mapuche-conflict-idUSKCN25230C of recent confrontations https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/freight-train-derailed-burned-southern-chile-amid-indigenous-conflict-2021-11-02 in the southern Araucania and Bio Bio provinces – where police and separatist indigenous groups have long feuded – has also played into Kast’s hands.

Gonzalo Cordero is a columnist and political consultant for La Tercera. He said, “I believe there’s a very important portion of the country that’s tired. They don’t want anymore of this.”

Boric’s supporters point out that almost 80% of Chileans, many fed up with the nation’s ultra-free-market economic model, voted last year to rewrite the nation’s constitution https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/freight-train-derailed-burned-southern-chile-amid-indigenous-conflict-2021-11-02. They argue that a conservative such as Kast wouldn’t do much to calm discontent.

“I think that if Kast is elected, there will be an ‘estallido 2.0’,” said Pedro Muñoz, an elected member of the body re-writing Chile’s constitution.

However, Kast and his supporters continue to lean in favor of the law-and–order message.

He pledged to continue fighting crime at his closing event Thursday night. He spoke out in support of officers who were accused and prosecuted of violence against protestors. This was the strongest applause.

Many supporters maintained that “estallido”, despite not having any evidence, was caused by foreign provocations such as those of Venezuela or Cuba.

Trump banners and anti-crime banners like “Orden con Kast” or “Order with Kast” were very common.

Boric is also leaning in. The protests may be seen as a sign that Kast is in decline or disorder by Kast supporters, but they also represent the end of the order.

Boric declared that the “We” campaign will be doing its politics on the streets at his event for political campaigns Thursday night.