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How to navigate the energy transition away from fossil fuels

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On November 13, 2017, steam rises from Niederaussem, a coal-fired power station operated by German utility RWE. It is located near the open-pit coal mines which feed it with coal.

Lukas Schulze | Getty Images News | Getty Images

LONDON — The deepening climate emergency underscores the urgent need for policymakers to oversee a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.

It is highly debated how nations will make this change.

Climate crisis is primarily caused by the burning of fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas. Despite politicians and business leaders pledging their support for the energy transition in public, global fossil fuel dependence is still a major problem. remains on track to get even worse.

According to climate scientists, the best way to address rising global temperatures is by reducing greenhouse gas emissions quickly.

The Glasgow Climate PactAn agreement was reached at COP26 summitThis month marked the first international climate agreement to explicitly mention fossil fuels. In the final agreement, countries were required to cut down on coal usage and reduce subsidies for fossil fuels.

This is the language. done little to inspire confidenceHowever, this is especially true in light of recent research suggesting that fossil fuels make up the majority. must be kept in the groundIf we are to stop climate changes that become more severe and possibly irreversible, then the world must act now.

While it can be accomplished, it is also possible quickly. However, the price will not last forever and will result in a happy and healthy society. That’s it.

Julia Steinberger

University of Lausanne Ecological economist

According to the U.N., global fossil fuel consumption is unacceptable.dangerously out of sync“With climate goals, activists have called for government to end the fossil fuel economy.

Experts assess how fast it is possible to decarbonize the world economy and offer some interim solutions.

“We need to stop using fossil fuels”

CNBC’s Carroll Muffett said that he is a Kentucky native and had worked in tobacco production as a child. “I can feel the tar in my nostrils, the feeling in my lungs and the choke sensation of smoking tobacco when it’s winter stripped. The truth is that the U.S. started regulating cigarettes aggressively in order to do so.

Yes, these areas have many workers. But that wasn’t true for asbestos. These are goods that must be moved from our economy.

Muffett explained that it was a prerequisite for just transitions to occur. Muffett cited examples of the U.S. government’s and coal industry’s pledges to continue using coal, despite climate change and its health effects.

We know we have to stop using fossil fuels. Muffett explained that countries dependent on fossil oil must recognize the fact and make a transition.

Solar and wind are rapidly becoming the best source of renewable energy and the least expensive for over two-thirds the population. These are less expensive than the new construction of coal or gas plants and are cheaper than existing fossil fuels. They are also scalable, which I believe is a key feature of these renewable energy sources, especially solar. You can deploy them at small scales in isolated areas.

Which transition?

In January, the International Energy Agency published this document. world’s first comprehensive roadmapTo build a global energy industry with zero emissions by 2050.

World’s largest energy company saidIn May, it was stated that no more oil, gas, or coal would be developed if the world aims to achieve net zero by the end of this century. The government promises at the time were “well below” what was needed to achieve net zero.

To put the total size of the energy market into perspective, global markets for coal and natural gas are both bigger than all metal markets combined — and the oil market is almost double that size, according to an analysis by Morgan Stanley.

Our energy storage must not be reduced in this transition. This is the big problem.

Alan Thomson

Arup is a global energy leader

According to the World Energy Information Center, more than 80% global energy consumption was attributed to fossil fuels in 2019. data compiledOur World in Data reported that renewable energy such as solar and wind accounted for 11.4%.

It is also growing in terms of the availability of renewable energy. still lowerBesides the overall increase in energy consumption.

“Considering that the whole energy system is growing as wellMartijn Rats (chief commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley) told CNBC via email, “The switch from fossil fuels and renewables isn’t a fast one.”

He said, “The energy transformation will not happen with only start-ups.” We need major global energy corporations to invest the billions of dollars that will be needed in the coming decades. Today’s fossil-fuel companies have a role to play in this. They have the engineering and project management skills to realize large-scale infrastructure projects.

An investment into a livable future

OPEC, an oil producer organization has stated that the story that energy is shifting from fossil fuels into renewable energy “is misleading” and that it could be dangerous for a world still thirsty after all sources of energy.

In comments to assembled delegates attending COP26, Mohammed Barkindo (OPEC Secretary General) saidUnintended consequences could result from a failure of all parties to hear each other on matters such as energy affordability, security and reducing carbon emissions. These could include market distortions, heightened volatility energy shortfalls.

To be sure, all of these examples are already evident — and at a time when the global energy mix is still dominated by fossil fuels.

A group of large gas exporters has, however, formed a coalition. warnedAbout persistent “reductionism, cancel culture” regarding hydrocarbons. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum stated that it believes gas offers a “complete and balanced” solution for the transition in a statement sent to U.N.

Julia Steinberger from the University of Lausanne said that “that’s what I call the discourse of climate delay.” It’s an old one. “Fossil fuel solutionism” is a term we use to describe it. It means that although they’re the problem, they’re also the solution.

A paper publishedThe journal Global Sustainability published William Lamb (an economist) and other coauthors including Steinberger last July to examine the main messages proponents of minimal climate action. There are four major categories of “discourses about climate delay”. They include “redirect responsibility” which means someone should act first; “push for non-transformative options” (disruptive changes will not be necessary); “emphasize downsides” that emphasize the difficulties (it’s impossible to stop climate change); and “surrender” which indicates it is impracticable to do so.

Lamb’s team identifies fossil fuel solutionism as pushing for “non-transformative actions.” It is a message that promotes ineffective solutions while ignoring more efficient measures.

Steinberger stated that one of the major arguments is “Oh, well, if you change overnight, then you will be in trouble.” Although we would like to see a seamless transition, it is not possible. We must move as quickly as we can and that’s what we won’t do. This is precisely why we aren’t attempting that. These industries say: “You still need us moving forward.”

“We have to explicitly state, and that is something that didn’t happen at COP. That every country is working to eliminate fossil fuels. This looks like electrification. It also looks like the generation of renewable energy. These things are technically possible and very cost-effective. It is only that their ramp-up will be costly because they have been waiting so long.

Steinberger claimed that decarbonization will require massive public money, which would probably incur debt. But this shouldn’t be viewed as a problem. It is an investment in a sustainable future.

It is possible and can be done quickly, however, it comes with a cost that will eventually be paid in a healthy and prosperous society. It’s going to be that hard.

“Green power gap”

“Governments will have to assess their tolerance for funding the transition. In the long-term, this will result in cheaper energy. There is no doubt about the duration of this transition. [prices]”They are going to rise,” Steve Varley (global vice-chair for sustainability, management consulting firm EY), told CNBC via phone.

“All government will be extremely focused on [avoiding] power cuts and the prices being charged for electricity accelerating — it’s a tough call,” he said of the transition.

Research by EY suggests that there is a green power gap. An additional $5.2 trillion is needed to fulfill IEA’s scenario for developing renewable energy. Additionally, the divide exists between developed and emerging nations.

“Specific industries also face a burning platform of limited capital, shifting consumer preferences and leaving infrastructure and job stranded,” said he.

Varley wrote in October on EY that “if developing countries can’t license, import and scale green technology for a reasonable price, the incentive will stay to extract and burn fossil fuels.” The International Renewable Energy Agency predicts that oil- and gas-producing nations like Angola, Iraq, and Libya will suffer.

Arup’s global energy leader Alan Thomson said that hydrogen might be included in “low-carbon clusters”, which are essential for the transition away from fossil fuels.

These are “smaller units of green energy that can be connected to other solutions in time – that spread, multiply and then dominate, increasingly delivering value as they become more and more interconnected,” he told CNBC by email.

Thomson suggested that this could mean using green hydrogen as a fuel for buses. You can also scale clusters up. Thomson said that clusters can be scaled up if they are formed by areas within a larger city, such as those that convert domestic gas to hydrogen.

“The greater scale of demand could then make it worth developing the next piece of the jigsaw – for instance, replacing tanker shipments of hydrogen with a pipeline to a larger production facility nearby.”

Are we likely to see an increase in energy scarcity as the transition occurs? Thomson believes that energy storage will be the problem.

The big challenge lies in ensuring that our energy storage does not decrease during the transition. The storage of molecular fuels – for example petrol, natural gas – is relatively straightforward, we have the infrastructure in place, and it has high energy density,” he said.

He said that hydrogen might be part of the solution. “Electrification comes with storage challenges – particularly ensuring there is a buffer to ensure that supply and demand are balance. That’s why we think hydrogen, along with electricity is crucial to energy resilience – to make sure there is an easily storable form of energy available, that works with the infrastructure we already have,” he added.

— CNBC’s Anmar Frangoul contributed to this report.

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