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Explainer-Sudan’s political transition in the balance -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: Sudan’s Prime Minster Abdalla Hamdok at Berlin, Germany on February 14, 2020. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo/File Photo

(Reuters] – Sudan’s military announces a deal to restore Abdalla Hamdok, the prime minister of Sudan. This announcement comes just a month following the dissolution of his government by a coup.

Hamdok was seen as a symbol for resistance to military rule by protestors, while his acceptance of the agreement is opposed.

What’s in the Agreement?

On Sunday, Hamdok signed an agreement stating that he will be leading a government made up of technocrats in a period when the political transition is likely to continue until 2023 and all political detainees should be released.

This agreement is based upon an earlier arrangement between civilian and military political forces following the 2019 overthrow Omar al-Bashir. They had agreed to share power up until elections, but that relationship was ended by the coup.

It allows for investigation of deaths during demonstrations and completion of peace talks between some rebel Sudanese groups that were signed last year in Juba.

WHAT’S CHANGED?

According to the military’s assertion, their takeover was an “correction” in political infighting and that elections can continue.

Opponents claim the agreement gives legal cover to the coup and allows military to strengthen its position by replacing democratic leaders with loyalists in authority positions, subverting both the transition and goals of the 2019 uprising which toppled Bashir.

HOW DO WE GET TO THIS POINT?

As civilians demanded reforms of the military and justice for those killed in protest, the power-sharing arrangement in Sudan was under pressure. Bashir and other suspects in Darfur crimes were transferred to the International Criminal Court.

Political factions were accused by the military of inciting violence against the army. Civilian groups claim that the military is trying to seize power. It did this on Oct. 25, arresting some of its most vocal critics, and placing Hamdok in house detention.

Many in the international community condemn the coup, and the pro-democracy groupings in Sudan started a campaign to organize mass rallies as well as civil disobedience. As the military sought to consolidate its position, local mediation efforts supported by the United Nations sought to return power sharing.

WHAT SUPPORT HAS THE DEAL ACCESS TO?

Hamdok had refused military pressure to disband his government right before the coup. He said that he signed this agreement to stop further violence after the crackdown which left several protestors dead.

Some former rebel groups that signed the Juba Peace Deal and prominent social leaders under Bashir have supported the military. This agreement was welcomed cautiously by the United Nations and the Arab League as well as the African Union and Western nations.

The Forces of Freedom and Change, a political alliance that shared power with both the military and pro-democray activists, has rejected the offer.

Protesters have been killed and their anger has led to protestors calling for the military’s resignation and that they be brought before the courts. This will increase the likelihood of further demonstrations.

WHY IS IT MATTTERING?

Sudan is a nation of 46 million citizens. The outcome of the deal will decide the power balance.

Hamdok had reached an agreement to pay off more than $56 billion of foreign debt. However, this was put into doubt after the coup. In the face of widespread poverty and shortages, it had implemented painful economic reforms.

It also agreed that it would follow the lead of other Arab nations in normalizing ties to Israel.

The course of Sudan will impact a region that borders the Sahel and Red Sea, as well as the Horn of Africa. There are many international power players vying to influence this volatile area. Tens of thousands fled Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict last year, bringing new tensions to the border region of Sahel, Red Sea and Horn of Africa.

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