Euro zone Nov growth surprisingly strong as prices surge -PMI -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – Shoppers fill Cologne’s Main Shopping Street Hohe Strasse (High Street), Cologne, Germany 12/12/2020 REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File PhotoLONDON (Reuters – Eurozone business growth unexpectedly accelerated in this month, as consumers shrugged off yet another wave of coronavirus illnesses and new restrictions. Meanwhile, price pressures soared once again, according to a survey released Tuesday.
Flash Composite purchasing managers’ index by IHS Markit, an indicator of overall economic strength, increased to 55.8 from 54.2 last October.
The poll exceeded the forecasts of Reuters, which predicted a fall to 53.2. It was also comfortably higher than the 50 mark that separates contraction from growth.
Chris Williamson of IHS Markit, chief business economist said that “a stronger expansion in business activity in November defied economists’ expectations of a slowdown but it is unlikely to prevent euro zone experiencing slower growth for the fourth quarter,” especially since rising virus cases appear to be set to cause new disruptions in December.”
The pandemic and shortages of heavy-good vehicle drivers have created a buyers’ market for raw material. As a result, the composite input price index jumped to 74.9 from 73.2. This is the highest level since mid-1998.
Nevertheless, a PMI in the bloc’s main services industry rose from 54.6 to 56.6. That is far higher than all forecasts by Reuters, who had expected a decline to 53.5.
However, the optimism is waning as new lockdowns will likely have an even greater effect on services. From 69.0 in February, the index of business expectations fell to 66.6. This is its lowest reading since February.
The manufacturing activity was strong and the factory PMI increased to 58.6 (from 58.3). The composite PMI index feeds in an output indicator, which rose to 53.8 from 53.3.
There was strong demand and factories were able transfer some of the record rise in raw material prices to their customers. From 72.6 to 74.3, this was the highest output price index since IHS Markit started collecting data almost 19 years ago.
The European Central Bank claims the increase in inflation has been temporary, which raises questions about their claim. A Reuters poll released earlier in the month found that Euro zone inflation expectations could continue to rise above the Bank’s 2% target for next year.
Williamson stated that supply delays remain at record levels and energy prices are rising higher. This has created upward pressure on prices which is far greater than any survey had previously seen.
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