By Mark Trevelyan

(Reuters) – Concerns about Russian troop movements in Ukraine have been raised by Kyiv, the United States and others that Russia might consider attacking its neighbor. We will take a look at some questions raised by this.

What are the TWO SIDES STATING ABOUT RISK OF CONFLICT

Russia claims it does not threaten anyone. It also denies that it has ever threatened any country. Russia has accused NATO and Ukraine of creating tensions. It suggested that Kyiv may be planning to try and seize two areas in eastern Ukraine held by pro-Russian separatists. Russia’s foreign intelligence agency compared the current situation to the 2008 civil war that saw Georgia’s troops crushed by Russian forces.

Ukraine claims that it is not planning an offensive of this nature and Russia says they have more than 92,000 soldiers near their borders in preparation for an attack.

HOW LIKELY IS A RUSSIAN INVASION?

Reuters spoke with more than a dozen sources including Western intelligence officials as well as Russians that are aware of Kremlin thinking. Most agreed an invasion would not be likely. Another plausible scenario was President Vladimir Putin using the credible threat to use military force in order to demonstrate that Russia cares about protecting its “red lines.” The Russian government has made repeated statements in recent weeks that they are not willing to allow NATO arms to Ukraine, or for any NATO military presence. These sources said that Putin is skilled at de-escalating crisis and escalated them as well. This was evident in spring when over 100,000 Russian soldiers gathered close to Ukraine’s borders and were later dispersed. Putin is doing this to keep Russia’s adversaries guessing as to his motives and remind the West that Russia can be trusted.

WAIT, IT COMED TO WAR!

The International Institute for Strategic Studies says that Russia’s military has more active troops than Ukraine with 900,000, a difference of over four times. Samir Puri is an IISS senior fellow for hybrid warfare. According to him, Russia has the advantage of having proxy forces fighting in the separatist conflict in Ukraine. That gives them the possibility to connect with them and expand the control area. He suggested that Russia could consider a larger invasion from Russia (and its ally Belarus), the east (via Crimea which Russia took from Ukraine in 2014) or the south (via Russia’s ally Belarus). This would include a naval attack on Odessa/Mariupol.

HOW PROPER IS UKRAINE TO DEFEND ITSSELF?

Ukraine’s military might is much stronger than that of 2014 when it lost Crimea and Russia in a flurry. The U.S. has provided anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, which it could use for intelligence assistance. It would face an enormous adversary, however – Russia’s advantage in combat tanks is greater than three times one.

Mathieu Bourlegue, a Chatham House researcher, said, “For Ukraine the issue would be… to resist as many as they can and pray for assistance from West,”. “If Russia invades in full, the question for Kyiv will be to mount counter-insurrection-style warfare to make the cost of invasion tremendous for Russia.”

WHAT MIGHT DISTURB MOSCOW WITHOUT?

After the seizing of Crimea, the West imposed sanctions against Russia and may add more. These measures could include limiting Russia’s ability to pump Russian gas through its Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Germany. If Putin invades, he could cause a total rupture in relations between the West and Russia. There is no way to know how deep NATO may go in defense of Ukraine. It would present a serious risk for both sides. Although Ukraine is not part of NATO, doing nothing would make the alliance seem irrelevant.

“This is the brinkmanship battle that is unfolding. There will be calculations about where the next escalatory step could take us, both in NATO’s Brussels office and Moscow. Puri said that NATO would deploy to battle… Russians.

“Whether Ukraine becomes a warground, I don’t think so – but that is the problem that Russia and NATO have been fencing around in Ukraine at the moment.”