Brace for it -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: Black Friday shoppers line up in Rehoboth Beach Delaware on November 27th 2020. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File PhotoDhara Ranasinghe gives a glimpse at what lies ahead.
Do not expect to find any calm on the morning of a large U.S. Public Holiday.
The first is a collection of U.S. data before the Thanksgiving holiday. These include weekly initial unemployment claims, Q3 GDP prints, personal income numbers and personal spending numbers, as well as new home sales and preliminary readings on October durable goods orders.
An inflation indicator of key importance, the PCE index will be under scrutiny due to recent inflation spikes that reached three decades highs.
It’s also worth noting minutes from Fed’s most recent meeting, the one in which they declared tapering.
The impact of rising COVID cases may be better illustrated in Europe by Germany’s Ifo indicator, which is closely monitored. It could also show the effects on Tuesday’s positive PMI numbers.
All this is happening in the face of increasingly uncertain world markets that investors place for higher inflation or interest rates.
A rise in real and inflation-adjusted yields was particularly troubling for the equity markets.
German 10-year inflation linked bonds yields increased nine basis points to 3 week highs, exceeding a seven-basis point rise in nominal borrowing cost. Two ECB policymakers had made hawkish statements about inflation.
The central bank of New Zealand increased interest rates on Wednesday for the second consecutive month to control rising consumer prices.
European stock futures are still higher today. Wall Street futures, which saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq drop for two days straight due to higher Treasury yields, are now flatlining.
Don’t forget Turkey, where the lira will be heading back to record lows after Tuesday’s 15% crash.
With President Tayyip Turkey defending the recent rate reductions, the lira trades at around 13 USD, down 22% from the start of last week. Investors are closely monitoring the situation for signs of contagion, although it appears to be limited.
Markets should be more informed by key developments on Wednesday
OTC: Toshiba Major shareholder opposes breakup and urges the board to seek offers
Japan’s factories are growing at the fastest rate in almost four years
ECB Speakers: Isabel Schnabel, ECB Board member
– Treasury 20-year bond auction Lira underperforms EM peers, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkvlgdeobpb/Lira%20underperforms.png
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