Pavel Polityuk and Alexander Marrow

MOSCOW/KYIV – Russia held military drills at the Black Sea south of Ukraine on Wednesday. It stated that it needs to improve its combat readiness due to increased NATO activity close by its borders.

The Ukraine staged its exercises near Belarus’ border, after it and its allies, the United States, said that Russia is preparing for an invasion.

After weeks of increasing tension, the danger of war has increased between the neighbours. Russia denies any aggressive intent while intelligence sources from Western countries told Reuters that they don’t see an imminent invasion.

Moscow regards the United States of America and NATO as provocative. They have shown their support for Ukraine through manoeuvres by warships in the Black Sea, and the delivery to Ukraine of U.S.-patrol boats.

On Wednesday, Liz Truss (British Foreign Secretary) told Reuters it would be a mistake for Russia to attack Ukraine.

Interfax reported that Russian fighter planes, ships and aircraft practised repelling aerial attacks on navy bases as well as responding to air strikes at military drills in the Black Sea on Wednesday.

Separately the news agency quoted Sergei Shoigu from the Defence Ministry as saying that Russia needed to continue developing its armed forces due to “the complex military and political circumstances in the world” and “the growing activity of NATO nations near Russia’s borders”.

His priorities included increasing the capabilities of the Armed Forces, strengthening non-nuclear Deterrence and supporting nuclear forces in combat readiness.

Shoigu complained Tuesday that U.S. bombers practiced a nuke strike against Russia from two directions earlier in the month. He also complained that they had flown too close to the Russian border. The Pentagon claimed that these drills were consistent with international protocol.

UKRAINIAN ‘SPECIAL OPERATION’

On Wednesday, Ukraine held a “special operations” near the Belarus border. This included drone drills and exercises for airborne and anti-tank units.

The country has added 8,500 troops at its border with Belarus because it is afraid of being caught up in the migrant crisis. This has already seen the European Union accuse Minsk for inviting migrants from the Middle East into Belarus and forcing them to go to Poland. Belarus claims it did not cause the crisis.

Kyiv worries also that Russia might use Belarus’s border to mount a military offensive. Belarus is an ally of Russia.

According to the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, this weekend’s Military Times outlet reported that Russia has more than 92,000 troops positioned around Ukraine’s border and is preparing for an attack at the beginning or end of January.

Moscow dismissed these suggestions and said that it wasn’t threatening anybody. It also defended its rights to send its troops wherever it wanted.

Sources of intelligence, diplomats, as well as analysts claim that Moscow might be using Ukraine’s escalation as part of a larger strategy to put pressure on Europe. It could also support Belarus in the migrant crisis, as well as using its influence in Europe as the continent’s biggest gas supplier, to demand the rapid approval by regulators of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Germany.

Samir Puri (a senior fellow in hybrid warfare at The International Institute for Strategic Studies) said, “It feels…more like another piece coercive lever that the Russians are adding onto this strategic position in Eastern Europe.”

“It might have some value by itself, but not needing to be followed up with a large-scale invasion that would be political disastrous for Putin.