Vol takes a toll -Breaking
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Wall Street street sign is visible outside New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), New York City, New York. U.S.A, January 3, 2019. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton//File PhotoSujata Ro shows us the future.
COVID fear, year-end approaching and Fed signals of tightening policy — this is a recipe to create turbulence. That’s exactly what we’re seeing. Wall Street’s fear index has shot up to 30% from its placid level in November.
Wall Street traders quickly became red after the single U.S. Omicron was discovered. It quickly reversed what had been a positive session, which came just days after a European record closing stock market.
The investor community is clearly feeling the pinch, and keen to protect their year-to date portfolio gains.
The volatility of currency and bonds has also reached its highest point since last December, and have been at their highest level since March.
Asia took the New York selloff and the trend continues to Europe. U.S. Futures signal an open higher, at least temporarily.
Watch out for Fed speakers — this is their final airing before the post-meeting silence period. Loretta Mester from Cleveland Fed, a voting member of the Fed next year, believes that the bank will be able increase rates by a few points next year.
Treasuries saw more money flowing in. 10-year yields have fallen by 20 basis points over the past week.
In Europe, German 10-year yields have fallen to 2 1/2 months below the lows reached recently. Also, pay attention to Italy for stress indicators. The gap in the bond yield premium between Germany and Italy has widening this week, which is now at its highest point since last October.
Omicron concerns and travel restrictions have left oil on unstable ground. Later in the day, OPEC+ will determine whether or not to increase monthly production.
Vol didn’t escape oil markets — futures rose $20 between August and October, plummeted almost $10 mid-November, and have fallen another $10 since then
These are the key developments expected to give more direction for markets Thursday
-Euro zone PPI/unemployment
-ECB speakers: ECB Board Member Fabio Panetta
Speakers: San Francisco President Mary Daly, Richmond President Thomas Barkin and Altanta President Raphael Bostic
-Emerging markets: Brazil Q3 GDP, India trade balance
-U.S. initial jobless claims Graphic: Volatility on rise, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbpgnlnjrvq/Pasted%20image%201638397673021.png
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